China's oil demand is expected to approach 500 million tons this year

The “2011 Oil and Gas Industry Development Report at home and abroad” released by the China Petroleum Technology and Research Institute on February 15 predicted that world petroleum supply and demand will tend to be loose in 2012, and the international oil price is generally lower than the level in 2011. In 2012, China's oil demand will continue to grow and is expected to approach 500 million tons, but the growth rate is lower than the average level in the past decade.

The report predicts that the global economic growth will slow further, and the world's oil supply and demand will tend to be loose. If there is no interruption in the supply of oil, the international oil price will show a trend of low and high, and it is generally lower than the level of 2011. WTI oil price is expected to be 90-100 US dollars / barrel, Brent oil price is 95-105 US dollars / barrel, while the WTI and Brent oil price differential will be reduced.

For China, the report predicts that China's oil demand will continue to maintain growth. It is estimated that the annual apparent oil consumption will reach 493 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and the growth rate will be lower than the average level of 7.1% in the past decade. In 2011, China’s apparent oil consumption was 470 million tons. This year, China's oil imports will continue to grow, and foreign dependence will further increase.

The report pointed out that the demand for refined oil products in China is still expected to maintain steady growth. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of refined oil products for the year will be 278 million tons, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year; gasoline, diesel and kerosene will increase by 7.5%, 6.0% and 5.1% respectively. It is worth noting that the seasonal partial supply of diesel oil may still appear this year.

The report also predicts that the domestic natural gas consumption is expected to exceed 150 billion cubic meters, and the annual natural gas output will reach 110 billion cubic meters. In addition, China's natural gas imports will exceed 45 billion cubic meters, up 45% year-on-year, and foreign dependence will exceed 30%.