The 18th National Party Congress explicitly pointed out that China’s basic national conditions, which are still at the primary stage of socialism, have remained unchanged, and problems such as unbalanced development, uncoordinated and unsustainable development remain outstanding, and the quality and effectiveness of development needs to be urgently improved. The requirements for adjusting the structure and benefiting people's livelihood are very urgent. The 18th National Congress of the People's Republic of China mapped out the new deployment of the new Sihua, and proposed the five-in-one overall layout, in particular to enhance innovation capabilities, promote economic restructuring, promote integration of urban and rural development, comprehensively improve the level of open economy, and promote resources. Savings and environmental protection, building a manufacturing powerhouse, and so on, have all placed higher demands on the development of the power industry.
First of all, the two doubles proposed by the 18th Congress and urbanization put forward new requirements for the electrician industry. It is estimated that China will enter a well-to-do society by 2020. The per capita energy consumption will be calculated at 3.8 tons of standard coal, and the total energy consumption will reach 5.3 billion tons of standard coal, a 63% increase over 2010; China's current urbanization rate is just over 50%. The developed countries are generally around 75% to 80%. Urbanization means that the production, living, and exchange methods will fundamentally change, and the corresponding individual energy consumption from rural areas to urban areas will increase by three times.
According to experts' forecast, China's electricity consumption will account for 25% of terminal energy consumption by 2015, and the national electricity demand will reach around 7-8 trillion kwh by 2020. Based on this, it is estimated that the installed capacity in 2012 will be 1.14 billion kilowatts. On the basis of an increase of about 60% of the installed capacity, this requires the electrician industry to meet the intensive, smart, green, low-carbon development path. The second is the construction of an ecological civilization and beautiful China. The energy development approach must undergo a profound transformation, and new demands are placed on the electrical industry. In the future, China will have to co-ordinate the coordinated development of energy and eco-environment, gradually shift from relying too much on traditional fossil fuels to rely more on new and renewable energy, which will bring more opportunities for development in the electrical equipment manufacturing industry.
According to the national electricity supply and demand forecast of the National Energy Administration in 2013, China's economy will continue to stabilise and pick up, driving the growth in demand for electricity to pick up. In 2013, China will add 90 million kilowatts of installed capacity, including 36 million kilowatts of thermal power, 21 million kilowatts of hydropower, 3.24 million kilowatts of nuclear power, 18 million kilowatts of wind power, and 10 million kilowatts of photovoltaics, of which non-fossil energy will account for 58%. It is expected that by the end of 2013. The installed capacity of power generation in the country will reach 1.23 billion kilowatts, and the installed capacity of power generation is expected to leap to the top in the world.
With the restart of coastal nuclear power, nuclear power construction is gradually heating up, and the number of starts may be doubled from 2012; wind power and photovoltaic industry will have greater development in 2013 under the support of a series of national policies and plans. The state's efforts in environmental protection are gradually being strengthened. The power industry will take the path of green development and ecological development. This will bring opportunities for the development of high-efficiency, low-consumption, and intelligent high-end electrical equipment and products.
In recent years, China is accelerating the transformation of power development methods, improving the ability of the power grid to optimize energy allocation in a wide range of areas, and building a strong smart grid based on the backbone grid of UHV power grids. The State Grid Power Grid project under construction has one or two straight three (Huinan-Minnan-Zhebei-Shanghai; Haminan-Zhengzhou, Xiluodu left bank - Zhejiang Jinhua). In 2013, the State Grid planned to approve and start the construction of four cross-three straight UHV lines (Huainan - Nanjing - Shanghai, Zhejiang - Fuzhou, Ya'an - Wuhan, Mengxi - Changsha UHV AC; Ningdong - Zhejiang, Ximeng - Taizhou, Mengxi - Hubei UHV DC). In the next 8 years, the State Grid Corporation of China will invest about 1.2 trillion yuan, put into production of 94,000 kilometers of UHV lines, convertible capacity of 320 million kVA, and convertible capacity of 460 million kilowatts. The construction of these projects will be used for the electric power transmission and transformation manufacturing. Businesses bring more room for development.
The "Government Work Report" clarifies the target of economic growth of about 7.5% this year. In 2013, the momentum of China's economic stabilization and recovery is expected to be further consolidated. Due to the continuity and stability of the policy, it is certain that the macroeconomic environment in 2013 is conducive to the development of the equipment manufacturing industry, including the electrical industry. However, the current electrical industry is facing excess capacity, rapid increase in accounts receivable, and corporate profits. The decline and the increase in international trade frictions and other unfavorable factors can not be underestimated.
It is expected that the growth rate of production and sales in the electrical industry in 2013 will maintain the 2012 level, which is about 12%-15%. Due to the gradual implementation of the policy of encouraging the development of the real economy and the low base in 2012, the increase in profits will tend to increase in pace with the increase in production and sales. However, import and export trade may still encounter similar difficulties in 2012. In 2013, imports of electrotechnical products, export value, and total import and export volume may have a small increase of less than 5%. According to the forecast of about 90 million kilowatts of installed capacity of power generation equipment in 2013, the output of power generation equipment in 2013 will reach 110 million kilowatts to 120 million kilowatts, the transformer output will reach about 1.4 billion kVA, and the high voltage switch board will reach 1.8 million. about.
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