According to the Solarbuzz report, in the fourth quarter of 2011, the PV market in North America increased by nearly one GW, and it also generated strong feedback in other markets such as Germany and Asia. New Jersey, California, Arizona, and Ontario account for one-third of these needs, and more than half of them are large-scale ground-mounted systems.
Looking at the North American PV market as a whole, the surge in installations in the fourth quarter benefited from the federal cash guarantee policy that expired, prompting the installation of photovoltaics at the end of 2011. From the state's point of view, California's solar-powered tax-paying process brought an additional $200 million, reducing the wait time for distributed generation of the client. In addition, as part of California's renewable energy portfolio standard target (33% renewable energy by 2020), the state is currently implementing several programs to stimulate 1-20MW of distributed generation projects.
However, due to the oversupply of New Jersey's Solar Renewable Energy Credit (SREC), the growth in the fourth quarter of 2011 may be a flash in the pan. Solarbuzz stated that neither New Jersey nor Pennsylvania adjusted their respective solar energy policies for the surplus of SREC.
In Canada, large-scale projects completed in the fourth quarter have all enjoyed incentives from the TESOP. The on-grid tariff (FIT) program replaced it with smaller residential and non-residential projects that stimulated about 100MW in 2011, and Solarbuzz said that large-scale PV projects are also slowly starting due to regulatory and approval delays. Other areas such as the Project **Product Supply Agreement have also made some progress. If it goes well, it should be installed in 2012.
Trends in 2012: Split US Market, Canada's New On-grid Tariff Policy
Solarbuzz senior analyst Junko Movellan explained that the United States has a 25 GW non-residential and utility solar project in 2012, some of which will be subsidized, which means that they can only be shipped and installed this year. On the contrary, the growth of residential PV projects is still slow this year. In 2011, the supply of PV modules in China led to a drop in prices. The U.S. trade dispute over solar energy in China was further reshaped to supply and end of year pricing. The official ruling on the double reverse case (now set In mid-March) will shape the 2012 supply structure. The downstream channel terminal market will be transformed into more restructurings, and larger downstream companies will run away because the residential project market will split into smaller state-level markets.
The 2012 solar PV market in Canada will greatly depend on Ontario's on-grid tariff policy, which began in October 2011. Whether or not to retain the existing program structure is a key element, according to Solarbuzz analyst Michael Barker.
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