China's macroeconomic operation is generally stable, maintaining a stable, stable, and stable trend. "Incoming" is reflected in the adjustment of economic structure and development mode. "Good" is reflected in the stability, coordination and new economic operation. The growth of kinetic energy and the improvement of quality and efficiency. However, the basis for stable operation is not very solid, and the problem of insufficient development imbalance is still prominent. Structural contradictions are still the most important "blocking tigers" that restrict China's economic transformation and upgrading. From a period of time to come, although there is still downward pressure on potential productivity, China's economy is expected to continue to operate steadily due to the continuous release of new kinetic energy growth and system reform dividends.
In the past five years, it has been an extraordinary five years in the course of China’s economic development. From the outside, the world economy is generally in the period of deep adjustment after the international financial crisis, and the uncertainty of development instability is increasing. From the inside, China is in the process of tackling economic restructuring and development mode, downward pressure. bigger.
Faced with the risk challenge, all regions and departments, under the correct leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, adhered to the general tone of steady progress, better adapted and grasped the new normal of economic development, and implemented the five development concepts. We will unswervingly push forward the structural reforms on the supply side. China's economy is slowing down and stabilizing, stable and progressing, and stable and positive. There have been many profound historical changes in the field of economic construction. There are five major trends that need to be emphasized. And guidance.
From the perspective of growth, the stability and tenacity of economic operations are increasing.
The economic growth rate is smooth and the “soft landing†is successful. It is expected that there will be no suspense in achieving the expected goal throughout 2017.
From 1979 to 2012, China's GDP grew at an average annual rate of 9.9%; from 2013 to 2017, the average growth rate shifted to 7.1%. In the first three quarters of 2017, GDP increased by 6.9%, and it fluctuated within a narrow range of 6.7%-7.0% for 11 consecutive quarters. If we divide the reform and development process of the past 40 years into two stages, our economy has shifted from the original high-speed growth to the medium-high-speed growth stage.
Before the reform and opening up to 2012, China's economy can maintain rapid growth because the factor input cost is relatively low at that stage, and the market space is relatively broad. The potential growth rate determined by this is high, and we can create with lower cost. Higher added value.
After 2010, especially after the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the conditions at home and abroad have undergone profound changes. The original conditions and market environment that supported the rapid growth have fundamentally changed. The cost of labor and land and other factors has been rising rigidly. Most industries As the supply of goods exceeds demand, the rate of increase in the input of unit elements decreases, and the potential growth rate tends to fall. Therefore, the economic growth rate has been adjusted downward for several consecutive years.
After the economic development to the transition stage, the growth rate shift has its inevitability, and developed countries have also experienced such a stage. China's growth rate shift in the past few years should be said to be relatively stable: GDP growth in 2010 was 10.6%, in 2011 it fell to 9.5%, in 2012 it fell to 7.9%, and in 2013 and 2014 it fell to 7.8%, 7.3%. In 2015, it fell to 6.9%, and in 2016 it fell back to 6.7%, and the volatility gradually narrowed.
Many people worried that after the economy entered the transition period, especially under the impact of the external environment, due to the continuous adjustment of the world economy and the shrinking of external demand, China's economy will have a "hard landing." However, this situation did not appear, the economic shift was smooth, and the macro-control was powerful. Judging from the fluctuation of GDP growth rate of less than 0.4 percentage points in the past two quarters, after this round of adjustment, China's economy is approaching or converging to the potential growth rate at this stage. In the first three quarters of 2017, GDP increased by 6.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the same period of the previous year. From the data of October and November 2017, there is no suspense in achieving the expected target for the whole year of 2017. 2017 annual economic growth may rebound for the first time after seven years of adjustment. This shows that the stability and tenacity of China's economic operation are increasing. From a period of time to come, although there is still downward pressure on potential productivity, due to the continuous release of new kinetic energy growth and system reform dividends, there should be no suspense in the economy to maintain stable operation.
From the perspective of production, the development of the service industry is accelerating
The industrial structure is transformed from the original industry to the industrial and service industry, and the industrial and service industries are accelerating toward the middle and high end.
In 2013, the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP in China's GDP structure was 46.7%, surpassing the secondary industry for the first time. From 2013 to the present, the average growth rate of the added value of the tertiary industry is more than 1 percentage point higher than that of the industry, and its share of GDP continues to increase. In 2016, the tertiary industry accounted for 51.6% of GDP, exceeding 50%, and the service industry accounted for an obvious upward trend.
In the face of this trend change, there have been different views. When the turning point occurred in 2012-2013, there were concerns that resources would be more allocated to the service industry, causing the funds to become vain, which in turn led to the hollowing out of the real economy.
In fact, this is a misunderstanding. Industrial development and service industry development should not be opposed. Many service industries are an important part of the real economy. The accelerated development of the service industry is actually in line with the law of industrial growth. Generally speaking, in the middle and late stages of industrialization, there will be a phenomenon of more and more division of labor. Some of the productive service industries in the production chain will be separated from the manufacturing industry into independent industries or formats.
In addition, the accelerated development of the service industry will greatly benefit the industrial transformation and upgrading and consumption upgrading. The development of the producer service industry is accelerating, and the development of design, research and development, packaging, marketing, logistics and other formats is sufficient, which is conducive to promoting the industry to the high end of the global value chain. Some people believe that the technical content of Huawei mobile phones is not worse than that of Apple's mobile phones. Even in the same mobile phones, the technical content of Apple's mobile phones is higher, but the price is 60%-70% of Apple's mobile phones. The reason is that the related production service industry is backward, which hinders the extension of the value chain to some extent.
At present, China's comprehensive well-off goal is realized soon. After solving the problem of food and clothing and living and working in peace, the people's consumption and consumption consumption have increased sharply. The demand for tourism, sports, pension, education, health care and other life service industries is on the rise, but domestic high quality. The low-cost, safe and secure service industry is in short supply. Objectively, it is required to accelerate the development of the life service industry to promote consumption upgrading. We must comply with the new trend of industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading, increase supply-side structural reforms, allocate more resources to areas that need to be developed, and accelerate the promotion of high-quality development.
From the perspective of demand, the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth continues to increase.
In the past, the mode of relying on investment to drive the economy is changing, and it is turning to consumption-driven economic growth.
The issue of China's demand structure and sustainability has always been a hot topic of discussion. Over the years, affected by the planned economy and the economic mode of economic development, China's economic growth has mainly relied on investment, and the relationship between investment and consumption has been out of balance, which in turn has led to overcapacity in traditional industries. Governments at all levels have also made many efforts, hoping to turn unreasonable investment and consumption relations, but the results are not great.
The 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly stated that it is necessary to realize the transformation of the demand structure. From the past, relying on investment and export promotion, and shifting to investment, consumption, import and export, and multi-wheel drive, we must give better play to the role of consumption in promoting the economy. However, during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, investment remained the main driving force for economic growth.
In recent years, as the growth rate of investment is falling, the situation of foreign trade import and export is also changing: in the “troikaâ€, the contribution rate of investment to economic growth is declining, and the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth continues. Upgrade. In 2016, the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth exceeded 60%. In the first three quarters of 2017, it was 64.5%. The accumulated ice that has been accumulated for many years is melting, and the structural problems that have been solved for many years without any success are loosening. Whether it is the market or the government's initiative, the changes in this pattern are realistic and profound. The adjustment trend of the demand structure is in line with our macro-control direction, and also in line with the direction of China's economic rebalancing. This is conducive to sustainable development. Developed. This trend change means that China's future economic growth depends more on the upgrading of domestic demand and consumption.
From the perspective of development, the new momentum of economic growth continues to grow.
The extensive mode of relying on extensional expansion is changing, the role of innovation drive is on the rise, new industries, new economy, new kinetic energy are accelerating growth, and the economy will accelerate to high quality development.
In the past, the development of the real economy, including the development of large enterprises, many of them are still taking the road of extensional expansion. But from a global perspective, this development model is changing, and entrepreneurs have realized that there is no way to adjust without upgrading or upgrading. Therefore, efforts are being made to intensify technological innovation, accelerate the development of emerging industries, increase technological upgrading and upgrading of traditional industries, and increase the cultivation of new kinetic energy.
In recent years, the growth rate of strategic emerging industries has been 4 to 6 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the industrial economy. New formats and new models have emerged in an endless stream. Online retail sales have continued to grow by more than 30%, and the previous two years have increased by more than 50%. The average growth rate of logistics and express delivery business exceeded 50%. Big data, cloud computing, the sharing economy, and the digital economy are booming and flourishing.
However, despite the rapid development of new industries, but the size is still relatively small, it is difficult to hedge the downward pressure brought by traditional industries, so the economic growth rate is still fluctuating, but this is a process of quantitative change to qualitative change. As the new kinetic energy of the new economy continues to grow, the economy will accelerate its development toward high quality. This trend has already taken shape and is unstoppable.
From the perspective of development goals, more consideration is given to the externalities of the economy.
By pursuing GDP growth, we are turning to paying more attention to the development of people's livelihood and improving environmental quality to meet the growing needs of the people.
In the period of industrialization, it is the first place to solve the "belly problem", so we must make bigger and stronger GDP. Now, we are still in the primary stage of socialism. Economic development is still the top priority. It is necessary for the economy to maintain medium and high speed growth. However, from the perspective of development goals, especially the consideration of strategic considerations, it has turned to pay more attention to the development of people's livelihood. And environmental quality improvement. After the consumption structure is escalating and the people solve the problem of food and clothing, the consumption-type consumption has increased sharply. It is hoped that the people's livelihood will develop greatly, and the indicators of employment, income, consumption and social security will receive more attention.
Western countries have four major indicators for macroeconomic development: growth, employment, inflation, and balance of payments. Among them, employment indicators are often the highest priority, and we are also moving towards this stage, and the statistical monitoring system should also be adjusted with the times. The National Bureau of Statistics will release data on the unemployment rate from the beginning of 2018, which is also an innovative measure to meet the objective requirements of high-quality economic development. In addition, during the industrialization upswing, companies rarely consider environmental pollution and consider the externalities of the economy. As people's demand for blue sky and clear water increases in the beautiful natural environment, it is hoped that people and nature will develop more harmoniously, and environmental standards and thresholds will become higher and higher. General Secretary Xi Jinping repeatedly stressed that “green mountains and green mountains are the Jinshan Yinshanâ€, and it is required to fight against the blue sky and achieve green development. The Party Central Committee and the State Council have specially issued plans for the construction of ecological civilization. The National Bureau of Statistics cooperated with relevant departments to formulate a green development monitoring plan and will release a green development index to the society.
The above five major changes are profound changes in the field of economic construction in the past five years. Based on these five major trends, we believe that China's macroeconomic operation is generally stable, maintaining a stable, stable, and stable trend. “Incoming†is reflected in the economic restructuring and development mode transformation, “goodâ€. It is reflected in the stability of economic operation, the coordination and the growth of new kinetic energy and the improvement of quality and efficiency.
The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the Central Economic Work Conference clearly pointed out that China’s economy has shifted from high growth in the past to high-quality development. In fact, it is based on the five major trends in the economic field.
Structural contradiction is still the most important "blocking tiger" for transformation and upgrading.
The establishment of a modern economic system is an important strategic goal of adapting to the new trend of economic development and ultimately achieving high-quality development.
Where is the high quality reflected in the new era of high-quality economic development? In my opinion, it does not only mean that the direct benefits of enterprises are improving, and it is not just about the increase in income of residents. In terms of broad concepts, economic stability, coordination of economic operations, improvement of people's livelihood, and improvement of environmental quality are all factors that should be considered for high-quality development.
Of course, we should also clearly see that despite these five major changes in economic operations, there are some trend changes that are preliminary. The foundation of stable economic operation is not very solid, and the imbalance of development is not sufficient. It is still quite prominent, and structural contradictions are still the most important "blocking tigers" that restrict China's economic transformation and upgrading.
Therefore, it is necessary to speed up the construction of a modern economic system, realize the docking of the real economy with modern finance, technological innovation and human resources, and establish a modern industrial system. It is necessary to speed up reforms, accelerate the reform of the market economic system, accelerate the reform of state-owned enterprises, accelerate the structural reforms on the supply side, and make the regulation of the market more effective, enterprises more dynamic, and more macroeconomic regulation. The establishment of a modern economic system is an important strategic goal for us to guide the new trend of economic development, promote transformation and upgrading, break through the gate period, and finally achieve high-quality development.
Grasping and guiding these major trends will not only better understand the stable, moderate, and stable situation in China’s economy, but also enhance development confidence, and more importantly, help to understand the party’s 19th and Central The spirit of the economic work conference and its decision-making arrangements will consolidate the foundation of stable economic development and accelerate the promotion of high-quality economic development in China.
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