In order to further support the development of the real economy, optimize the liquidity structure, and reduce financing costs, on January 4, the People's Bank of China decided to cut the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 1 percentage point. Among them, on January 15, 2019 and January 25, respectively, 0.5 percentage points. At the same time, the Medium Term Lending Facility (MLF), which expires in the first quarter of 2019, is not renewed. This arrangement can basically hedge the liquidity fluctuations caused by cash placement before the Spring Festival this year, which is conducive to financial institutions to continue to increase support for small and micro enterprises and private enterprises.
The relevant person in charge of the People's Bank of China said that the RRR cut will release about 1.5 trillion yuan of funds, plus the upcoming medium-term loan facilitation operation and the funds released by the in-depth assessment of the inclusive financial assessment, and then consider the first quarter of this year. After the medium-term loan facility is no longer sustainable, the net long-term capital is about 800 billion yuan. The person in charge stressed that the RRR cut is still a directional regulation, not a flood of water, and the stable monetary policy orientation has not changed.
E Yongjian, chief financial analyst of Bank of Communications Jinyan Center, said that replacing some MLFs will help reduce the cost of bank liabilities, and thus reduce the financing cost of the real economy, unblock the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, and transfer the policy to the real economy through banks. Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, pointed out that there is still room and necessity for implementing comprehensive and targeted RRR reductions this year and next.
Expert: There is still room for RRR
At the beginning of the new year in 2019, Premier Li Keqiang visited the Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank and the Construction Bank's Inclusive Finance Department on January 4, and held a symposium at the Banking Regulatory Commission. The Prime Minister stressed that it is necessary to increase the intensity of macroeconomic policy counter-cyclical adjustments, further adopt measures to reduce taxes and reduce fees, and use comprehensive reduction and targeted reduction tools to support private enterprises and small and micro enterprises.
The voice just fell, and the RRR is up. On the afternoon of January 4, the People's Bank of China decided to cut the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 1 percentage point. Among them, on January 15, 2019 and January 25, respectively, 0.5 percentage points. The relevant person in charge of the People's Bank of China stated that the reduction of the medium-term borrowing facilities facilitates the development of the real economy.
The above-mentioned person in charge pointed out that the net reduction of RMB 800 billion in long-term incremental funds for the RRR cut and related operations can effectively increase the source of solid economic loans for small and micro enterprises and private enterprises. The replacement of medium-term loan facilities can also directly reduce the interest rate of relevant banks by about 20 billion yuan per year, which is beneficial to the real economy to reduce costs through bank transfer. These are all conducive to supporting the development of the real economy.
At present, China's economy continues to develop healthily and the economy operates in a reasonable range. The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, maintain a moderate level of tension, not engage in flooding, reorientation and regulation, maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, maintain a reasonable growth in the scale of money and credit and social financing, stabilize macro leverage, and balance internal and external balances. Create a suitable monetary and financial environment for high-quality development and supply-side structural reforms.
Looking at this year and next year, Wen Bin said that there is still room and necessity for implementing comprehensive and targeted RRR cuts.
First, China's central bank's foreign exchange account has been reduced for four consecutive months. As China's foreign trade surplus tends to narrow, it is expected that foreign exchange holdings will generally decline. It is necessary to reduce the base currency caused by the reduction of foreign exchange holdings through comprehensive RRR cuts. pressure;
Second, the statutory deposit reserve ratio of large financial institutions in China is still at a relatively high level;
Third, although the use of monetary policy instruments such as MLF ensures market liquidity demand, due to its short term and high cost, it is not conducive to financial institutions to manage assets and liabilities and reduce capital costs. Therefore, it is necessary to continue to comprehensively reduce the RRR. Replace the MLF and optimize the liquidity structure.
Wen Bin pointed out that the statutory deposit reserve ratio as a means of total policy should play a structural role, and further guide financial institutions to continuously increase support for small and micro enterprises and private enterprises, and at the same time improve their corresponding The policy includes further optimizing the MPA assessment, formulating the credit exemption rules, etc., and effectively solving the problems of financing difficulties and financing for private enterprises and small and micro enterprises.
Huatai's macro Li Chao team believes that the central bank will have a three-time RRR cut in 2019. At the same time, the central bank is expected to cut interest rates in the second quarter. "First, China's macroeconomic fundamentals and PMI data have changed. The central bank's monetary policy is expected to shift to a stable growth target. Second, the improvement of the external monetary environment has led to a reduction in the central bank's constraints and a reduction in the pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates."
A related person from Xingshi Investment said, "There is still room for further (adjustment) in the future monetary policy. This comprehensive RRR cut is just the beginning."
The construction of supporting mechanisms needs to be strengthened
Wen Bin analyzed that last year's government work report proposed to clear the channels of monetary policy transmission, use differentiated reserves, differentiated credit and other policies to guide more funds to small and micro enterprises, “three rural†and poor areas, and better serve entities. economic. Looking back over the past year, the central bank implemented a prudent monetary policy, which has been targeted for four times, guiding financial institutions to increase support for small and micro enterprises, private enterprises, innovative enterprises and debt-to-equity swaps, and achieved positive results, financing difficulties and financing. Your problem has been relieved to a certain extent.
In terms of dredging the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, Chen Yulu, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, recently pointed out at the annual meeting of the China Finance Association and the China Financial Forum in 2018 that China is currently implementing a dual-pillar regulation framework for sound monetary policy and macro-prudential policy. On the other hand, in further diluting the transmission channels of monetary policy, it is once again facing the obstacles of the structural contradictions of the two long-standing financing systems.
On the one hand, direct financing, especially equity financing, has a relatively low contradiction. On the other hand, the financing situation of small and micro enterprises and private enterprises does not match the proportion of their national economy.
Wu Qi, a senior researcher at Pangu Think Tank, told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" to further unblock the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and ease the financing problems of private enterprises. It can be comprehensively implemented from the fund supply end and the capital demand side.
On the one hand, we will strengthen the coordination of fiscal policy, monetary policy and credit policy from the fund supply side. Wu Qi believes that, first of all, the fiscal and taxation policies should be further exerted, implement the tax reduction and fee reduction policies, reduce the burden on enterprises, and create favorable conditions for the development of enterprises. Second, a sound monetary policy should be tight and moderate, and liquidity should be reasonable and sufficient. Finally, we will give certain preferential policies in terms of capital adequacy ratio, non-performing loan ratio, desirable credit scale and popularity, and guide commercial banks to increase credit supply, focusing on supporting private enterprises and small and micro enterprises; supporting through credit enhancement and risk compensation. Private enterprises issue debt financing, promote insurance funds, public fundraising products and other investment in high-quality listed companies, and optimize corporate financing structure.
On the other hand, from the capital demand side, create a good technological innovation and business environment for business operations. Wu Qi believes that the policy should focus on increasing investment in science and technology research and development, reducing the tax burden of science and technology innovation enterprises, strengthening property rights protection, promoting enterprises to strengthen technological innovation, standardizing business management, improving labor productivity, and effectively improving core competitiveness. At the same time, we will further promote the reform of the discharge management service, and strengthen the main position of the enterprise by relaxing access restrictions, improving government efficiency, optimizing enterprise services. Give opportunities and rights to state-owned, foreign-funded, and private-equity competitions, strengthen the concept of administration by law, create a fair and just business environment, and effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of private enterprises.
Zeng Gang, deputy director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, believes that the factors that hinder the effectiveness of monetary policy can be summarized into three categories: bank, enterprise, and demand. The bank faces the problem of risk appetite and capital constraints. In terms of risk appetite, such as lending to private enterprises, if there is no good risk diversification mechanism, the bank's willingness is naturally not high. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a risk sharing mechanism. For example, the financial department establishes a financing guarantee fund, and the central bank establishes a private enterprise debt issuance support plan. The dredging transmission mechanism has nothing to do with monetary policy itself, and it is a problem of supporting mechanism construction.
At the enterprise end, many private enterprises are willing to borrow, but some private enterprises are to be eliminated in the context of capacity reduction. In other words, in the structural reform of the supply side, the industry needs to be transformed and upgraded, and the enterprise itself needs to keep up with the pace of the times and seek transformation and upgrading. On the demand side, it is also necessary to improve the business environment of private enterprises, help enterprises to successfully transform and upgrade as soon as possible, and embark on a long-term sustainable development path, thereby increasing the effective demand for financing.
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