The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Operation Monitoring and Coordination Bureau released the first half of the 2012 industrial economic operation report on September 5. The report pointed out that the industrial economy in the first half of the year generally continued the slowdown since the second half of last year, and showed obvious adjustment characteristics. Affected by the tightening of the market environment, the downward pressure on economic operations has increased, and the difficulties in production and operation have increased. From the perspective of efficiency, from January to July, the profits of the industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 2.7% year-on-year, and the profit margin of the main business decreased from 6.11% in the same period last year to 5.36%.
Industrial growth slows down and stabilizes
Since the beginning of this year, with the obvious weakening of external demand, the industrial added value of above-scale industries in the first seven months has maintained a growth rate of 10.3%. The growth rate of industrial production has shown signs of slowing down. During the period from April to July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 9.3%, 9.6%, 9.5% and 9.2% respectively.
The analysis believes that a moderate rate of correction will help release and alleviate the pressure of faster growth on economic operations, and will also help accelerate the adjustment of industrial structure and development mode.
From the data point of view, the lack of external demand has increased the pressure on China's industrial exports. From January to July, the industrial export delivery value increased by only 6.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 12.2 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the growth rate in July was only 3%, and the growth rate dropped by 3.3 percentage points from June.
The slowdown in domestic investment and the lack of external demand have led to a continuous decline in corporate profits and increased difficulties in production and operation. From January to July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 2.6785 trillion yuan, down 2.7% year-on-year; of which, the profit in July was 366.8 billion yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year. With the “new double-concurrence†of the new capacity release and the market demand fall in the early stage, the product prices continued to decline, the market expectation of price downturns, and the difficulties in production and operation of enterprises increased.
Overcapacity problem
From the perspective of manufacturing operations, affected by factors such as shrinking infrastructure and real estate investment, raw materials such as steel, nonferrous metals, building materials and chemicals are in a sluggish production situation. Overcapacity problems are emerging, and some industries are on the verge of overall industry losses.
Affected by factors such as the investment cycle of equipment and the shrinking of exports, the economic operation of the equipment manufacturing industry has entered an unprecedented downturn, and the growth rate of production has rapidly declined. As many as one-third of the main products have seen a year-on-year decline in output. In addition, the production situation of the consumer goods industry, which is mainly based on light textiles, is not optimistic; the electronics manufacturing industry is highly volatile due to the increase in uncertainty of external demand.
In general, the growth rate of production in most industries has declined to varying degrees year-on-year since the beginning of this year, but since the second quarter, it has also shown positive signs of slowing down. From the statistics, from January to July, the added value of raw materials industry, consumer goods industry and electronics manufacturing increased by 10.3%, 11.7% and 12.2% respectively, and the growth rate dropped by 2.7, 2.6 and 2.6 percentage points respectively; The added value of the manufacturing industry increased by 8.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 7.1 percentage points year-on-year.
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