"Local 7 trillion investment" solution and constant unchanged suggest that the economy is warm and cold
With the release of economic data in the first quarter, discussions on the economic downturn have been rampant. In April, many local governments convened a quarterly economic situation analysis meeting, saying that “the economic operation is still in a reasonable rangeâ€. However, when the next work arrangement was deployed, the local steady growth policy has already started, and Guangdong, Hainan, Tianjin, Jiangxi, Guizhou and other places have issued key projects with a total investment of more than 7 trillion yuan.
The situation of steady growth of local investment mainly depends on investment, but it is worth noting that the investment structure is changing. In the local policy investment list, projects involving people's livelihood, environmental protection and structural adjustment are increasing. Concerns about real estate investment are weakening, while investment in urbanization is increasing.
Unchanged: steady growth still depends on investment
Infrastructure is an invariant theme
Recently, local provincial party committees and provincial governments have successively held one-quarter economic situation or industrial economic situation analysis meeting, and deployed the next work arrangements. Judging from the information from these meetings, many places have stated that steady growth is a top priority, and the first emphasis in the next work arrangement is “grasping investment†and “accelerating key project constructionâ€.
On April 4th, Liaoning Provincial Governor Chen Zhenggao stressed in the Liaoning Provincial Economic Situation Analysis Video Conference that in the second quarter, the first half of the year should be doubled (referring to time and economic growth). To achieve the goal, his first emphasis is "Catch the investment."
On April 11th, Fujian Province held a symposium on the economic situation in the first quarter. When Su Shulin talked about the next stage of economic work, the first point of emphasis was on “grasping investment, grasping the construction of industrial projects, and accelerating the landing of existing projects. Promote new project development."
On the same day, the Qinghai provincial government also held the first quarter of the province's industrial economic operation situation analysis meeting, the meeting pointed out that "stable growth as the primary task", to this end, we must further increase investment to promote industrial development and upstream and downstream industry docking efforts.
“The key to steady growth is steady investment, including real estate investment and government infrastructure investment.†Zhang Liqun of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council told the Shanghai Securities Journal.
In order to stabilize investment, many local governments have recently issued a list of key projects or local investment plans. According to rough statistics, five provinces including Guangdong, Hainan, Tianjin, Jiangxi and Guizhou have announced this year's key project investment plans, with investment amounts of 3.6658 billion yuan, 179 billion yuan, 823.1 billion yuan, 600 billion yuan, and 249.9 billion yuan respectively. Yuan, the total investment exceeds 7 trillion yuan.
Among them, infrastructure construction is still a key investment area in these places. According to the "Guangdong Province 2014 Key Construction Project Plan Summary Table", in 2014, Guangdong plans to invest 450 billion yuan, of which half of the funds for infrastructure investment accounted for 229.8 billion yuan.
In terms of infrastructure, all localities pay attention to investment in railways, urban rail transit, and municipal public service construction. In Jiangxi, the first batch of provincial key projects were arranged in 200 this year, and 43 transportation projects were included in the plan. Among them, five expressways (market zone) will be built, six highways will be built, and 13 new highways will be planned. In terms of railways, Jiangxi Province will build the Jiangxi section of the Hangzhou-Nannan long-distance passenger line and the Jiangxi section of the Gan-Yu railway this year. The newly-opened Changjiyu passenger-specialized and Mengxi-Huazhong railway coal transportation channel will be built in Jiangxi. Hainan Province's key construction projects this year are mainly infrastructure and urbanization projects, including the West Ring High-speed Railway, Changjiang Nuclear Power, and Greening Baodao Project.
Change: investment structure optimization
"Environment", "people's livelihood", "urbanization" is popular
The steady growth policy can be described as “similar to the age of the yearâ€, but there are also differences between “years old and youngerâ€. This year's local government investment targets and high-level meetings are no longer the "real estate", but more concerned about "urbanization."
The "Tianjin City 2014 Key Construction Project Arrangement Opinions" specifically refers to small town construction projects. The "Guangdong Province 2014 Key Construction Project Plan Summary Table" plans to invest 31.9 billion yuan in new urbanization projects.
Li Xueyong, governor of Jiangsu Province, recently chaired the provincial government executive meeting and pointed out that in the second quarter, we should focus on the key points of the annual reform work and make substantial progress in reforming important areas and key links. One of the main points is to “solidly promote new urbanization and promote the integration of urban and rural developmentâ€.
In addition, "people's livelihood" and "environment" have become more interesting in the local investment direction. There are 64 major livelihood projects in Jiangxi's key projects this year, accounting for about one-third of this year's projects. There are five major categories of investment in Guangdong this year, and green development occupies one of the corners.
In fact, compared with the central and western regions and the economically developed provinces in the east, the investment structure is more optimized. Taking Beijing as an example, according to the public data of the Beijing Development and Reform Commission, in 2014, Beijing organized four major key construction projects. It involves resources and environment, improvement of people's livelihood, basic bearing, and structural adjustment projects.
"From the perspective of local investment objectives, the local investment structure is also undergoing positive changes. This is consistent with the central government's emphasis on stable growth policies that take into account the overall tone of restructuring and reform." The scholar said.
In the past, real estate loosening has played an important role in steady growth. But so far, only Wenzhou, Changzhou, Hangzhou and other cities with falling house prices have reported that real estate has been loosened. Wang Yiming, vice president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, is on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Said, "In the past, the real estate market has been adjusted for ten years, but in the past two years, the government has rarely dealt with real estate policies. It is difficult to loosen real estate, especially in first-tier cities."
Change: local finance constraints
Leverage private capital
On the one hand, in recent years, due to the sharp decline in land income, local fiscal revenues have declined, and local governments have to face a certain degree of financial constraints to stabilize growth. On the other hand, local governments need large investments. Under such contradictions, Some analysts have warned that local investment impulses should be prevented to bring local government debt risks.
Wang Yiming said, “At present, local government debt has entered the peak of debt repayment. If it is not handled well, there may be a capital chain break and a half-pull project.â€
Wang Tao, the chief Chinese economist at UBS, also suggested that steady growth should be based on private funds. "Using policy banks or issuing railway construction bonds can attract the participation of private funds. At the same time, we can increase cooperation between the public sector and the private sector by means of participation, contracting, and revenue sharing."
Wang Yiming also said that local governments should liberalize access to civilian services in the service sector, encourage private capital to enter the government-led municipal public infrastructure construction, and develop a mixed-ownership economy.
In fact, many places have tried to borrow capital. The Housing and Construction Department of Jiangxi Province recently issued the “Implementation Opinions on Further Encouraging and Guiding Private Capital to Enter the Public Utilities Sector.†Guangxi also issued documents to encourage private capital to enter the municipal public domain, and introduced rules to encourage private capital to participate in the construction of affordable housing.
With the release of economic data in the first quarter, discussions on the economic downturn have been rampant. In April, many local governments convened a quarterly economic situation analysis meeting, saying that “the economic operation is still in a reasonable rangeâ€. However, when the next work arrangement was deployed, the local steady growth policy has already started, and Guangdong, Hainan, Tianjin, Jiangxi, Guizhou and other places have issued key projects with a total investment of more than 7 trillion yuan.
The situation of steady growth of local investment mainly depends on investment, but it is worth noting that the investment structure is changing. In the local policy investment list, projects involving people's livelihood, environmental protection and structural adjustment are increasing. Concerns about real estate investment are weakening, while investment in urbanization is increasing.
Unchanged: steady growth still depends on investment
Infrastructure is an invariant theme
Recently, local provincial party committees and provincial governments have successively held one-quarter economic situation or industrial economic situation analysis meeting, and deployed the next work arrangements. Judging from the information from these meetings, many places have stated that steady growth is a top priority, and the first emphasis in the next work arrangement is “grasping investment†and “accelerating key project constructionâ€.
On April 4th, Liaoning Provincial Governor Chen Zhenggao stressed in the Liaoning Provincial Economic Situation Analysis Video Conference that in the second quarter, the first half of the year should be doubled (referring to time and economic growth). To achieve the goal, his first emphasis is "Catch the investment."
On April 11th, Fujian Province held a symposium on the economic situation in the first quarter. When Su Shulin talked about the next stage of economic work, the first point of emphasis was on “grasping investment, grasping the construction of industrial projects, and accelerating the landing of existing projects. Promote new project development."
On the same day, the Qinghai provincial government also held the first quarter of the province's industrial economic operation situation analysis meeting, the meeting pointed out that "stable growth as the primary task", to this end, we must further increase investment to promote industrial development and upstream and downstream industry docking efforts.
“The key to steady growth is steady investment, including real estate investment and government infrastructure investment.†Zhang Liqun of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council told the Shanghai Securities Journal.
In order to stabilize investment, many local governments have recently issued a list of key projects or local investment plans. According to rough statistics, five provinces including Guangdong, Hainan, Tianjin, Jiangxi and Guizhou have announced this year's key project investment plans, with investment amounts of 3.6658 billion yuan, 179 billion yuan, 823.1 billion yuan, 600 billion yuan, and 249.9 billion yuan respectively. Yuan, the total investment exceeds 7 trillion yuan.
Among them, infrastructure construction is still a key investment area in these places. According to the "Guangdong Province 2014 Key Construction Project Plan Summary Table", in 2014, Guangdong plans to invest 450 billion yuan, of which half of the funds for infrastructure investment accounted for 229.8 billion yuan.
In terms of infrastructure, all localities pay attention to investment in railways, urban rail transit, and municipal public service construction. In Jiangxi, the first batch of provincial key projects were arranged in 200 this year, and 43 transportation projects were included in the plan. Among them, five expressways (market zone) will be built, six highways will be built, and 13 new highways will be planned. In terms of railways, Jiangxi Province will build the Jiangxi section of the Hangzhou-Nannan long-distance passenger line and the Jiangxi section of the Gan-Yu railway this year. The newly-opened Changjiyu passenger-specialized and Mengxi-Huazhong railway coal transportation channel will be built in Jiangxi. Hainan Province's key construction projects this year are mainly infrastructure and urbanization projects, including the West Ring High-speed Railway, Changjiang Nuclear Power, and Greening Baodao Project.
Change: investment structure optimization
"Environment", "people's livelihood", "urbanization" is popular
The steady growth policy can be described as “similar to the age of the yearâ€, but there are also differences between “years old and youngerâ€. This year's local government investment targets and high-level meetings are no longer the "real estate", but more concerned about "urbanization."
The "Tianjin City 2014 Key Construction Project Arrangement Opinions" specifically refers to small town construction projects. The "Guangdong Province 2014 Key Construction Project Plan Summary Table" plans to invest 31.9 billion yuan in new urbanization projects.
Li Xueyong, governor of Jiangsu Province, recently chaired the provincial government executive meeting and pointed out that in the second quarter, we should focus on the key points of the annual reform work and make substantial progress in reforming important areas and key links. One of the main points is to “solidly promote new urbanization and promote the integration of urban and rural developmentâ€.
In addition, "people's livelihood" and "environment" have become more interesting in the local investment direction. There are 64 major livelihood projects in Jiangxi's key projects this year, accounting for about one-third of this year's projects. There are five major categories of investment in Guangdong this year, and green development occupies one of the corners.
In fact, compared with the central and western regions and the economically developed provinces in the east, the investment structure is more optimized. Taking Beijing as an example, according to the public data of the Beijing Development and Reform Commission, in 2014, Beijing organized four major key construction projects. It involves resources and environment, improvement of people's livelihood, basic bearing, and structural adjustment projects.
"From the perspective of local investment objectives, the local investment structure is also undergoing positive changes. This is consistent with the central government's emphasis on stable growth policies that take into account the overall tone of restructuring and reform." The scholar said.
In the past, real estate loosening has played an important role in steady growth. But so far, only Wenzhou, Changzhou, Hangzhou and other cities with falling house prices have reported that real estate has been loosened. Wang Yiming, vice president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, is on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Said, "In the past, the real estate market has been adjusted for ten years, but in the past two years, the government has rarely dealt with real estate policies. It is difficult to loosen real estate, especially in first-tier cities."
Change: local finance constraints
Leverage private capital
On the one hand, in recent years, due to the sharp decline in land income, local fiscal revenues have declined, and local governments have to face a certain degree of financial constraints to stabilize growth. On the other hand, local governments need large investments. Under such contradictions, Some analysts have warned that local investment impulses should be prevented to bring local government debt risks.
Wang Yiming said, “At present, local government debt has entered the peak of debt repayment. If it is not handled well, there may be a capital chain break and a half-pull project.â€
Wang Tao, the chief Chinese economist at UBS, also suggested that steady growth should be based on private funds. "Using policy banks or issuing railway construction bonds can attract the participation of private funds. At the same time, we can increase cooperation between the public sector and the private sector by means of participation, contracting, and revenue sharing."
Wang Yiming also said that local governments should liberalize access to civilian services in the service sector, encourage private capital to enter the government-led municipal public infrastructure construction, and develop a mixed-ownership economy.
In fact, many places have tried to borrow capital. The Housing and Construction Department of Jiangxi Province recently issued the “Implementation Opinions on Further Encouraging and Guiding Private Capital to Enter the Public Utilities Sector.†Guangxi also issued documents to encourage private capital to enter the municipal public domain, and introduced rules to encourage private capital to participate in the construction of affordable housing.
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