Market Confidence Stable Steel Price Narrowly Fluctuated

At present, the domestic steel market has entered an off-season seasonal demand, while steel traders are also facing the pressure of repayment, but the cost support continues to strengthen, the continued recovery of the manufacturing sector will form a favorable support. Moreover, we must also pay attention to the impact of policy information that may be released by the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference on the steel market. It is expected that the short-term domestic steel market will fluctuate slightly.

According to the Lange Steel Information Research Center weekly price forecasting model data, this week (2012.12.10-12.14) domestic steel market prices will fluctuate slightly, the long products market will adjust slightly, and the plate market price will fluctuate. Lange Steel's price index is expected to fluctuate around 145.7 points. The average price of steel is around 3790 yuan, with an average volatility of about 20-30 yuan. Lange Steel's long product index is expected to fluctuate around 159.1 points, with a slight adjustment of around 0.1 point. The Lange Steel Price Plate Index is expected to fluctuate around 129.7.

From the Lange Steel Information Research Center market survey, it is expected that this week (2012.12.10-12.14) domestic long products market prices will be slightly adjusted, while the plate market prices will rise and fall; raw material market prices will vary, The market price of iron ore will increase by 5 yuan, the coke market price will remain stable, the scrap market price will drop by 50 yuan, and the billet market price will decline steadily by 10 yuan.

1. Domestic steel market fluctuates slightly this week. Week 49 of 2012 (12.3-12.7) Lange Steel (LGMI) Composite Price Index reached 145.8 points, down 0.01% on a week-on-week basis and down 15.08% from the same period of last year. Among them, the LGMI longs price index was 159.2 points, a week-on-month decrease of 0.09%, a decrease of 18.55% from the same period of last year; LGMI sheet price index was 129.7 points, a week-on-month increase of 0.11%, a decrease of 8.83% from the same period last year.

According to the price data of 17 categories of 44 standard varieties monitored by the market of Lange Steel Information Research Center in the market, the market price of major steel products fluctuates slightly during the 49th week of 2012 (12.3-12.7). Compared with last week, the varieties rose sharply. Increased, flat varieties have decreased, and falling varieties have decreased. Of these, 15 species rose, 11 more than last week; 9 were flat, 4 more than last week; 20 varieties fell 7 species less than last week. The prices of the domestic steel raw materials market were mixed, the market prices of iron ore and billets fluctuated slightly, and the coke and scrap market prices remained stable.

2. This week, the country’s steel stocks slowed down at a slower pace. At present, the nation’s steel inventories have declined for eight weeks in a row. The increase in the rate of building materials inventories has slowed slightly, and the rate of decline in plate stocks has slowed slightly. According to market monitoring by Lange Steel Information Research Center, on December 7th, steel society stocks in 29 key cities across the country amounted to 11,776,600 tons, a decrease of 20,900 tons from the previous week. From the perspective of sub-species: China's wire rod social inventory is 1.0444 million tons, up 3.32% over last week; rebar social inventory is 4,479,400 tons, up 0.20% over the previous week; Panluo social inventory is 273,700,000 tons, Compared with the previous week, it rose 6.72%; the social volume of hot-rolled coils was 3,087,300 tons, down 2.58% from last week; the volume of cold-rolled coils society was 1.5388 million tons, down 0.56% from last week; the plate's social inventory The amount was 1,353,200 tons, an increase of 0.73% over the previous week.

3. This week, the steel market quickly pulled up. In the 49th week of 2012 (12.3-12.7), the market price of rebar ** quickly increased. This week's weekly closing price rose 161 points from the previous week. After the price fell for two weeks in a row, this week's gains again engulfed the decline of the previous two weeks. The main contract this week was 1.362 million contracts, an increase of 89.22 million lots, and the positions of long and short positions were changed quickly. The signs of more than one single inflow have become more apparent.

4. Concern about the recent factors affecting steel prices Macroeconomics:

China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.6 in November, hitting a 7-month high. The National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing jointly released the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in November. Statistics show that: 11 China's manufacturing PMI for the month was 50.6%, up 0.4% from the previous month. It was above the first-line 50-point line for the second consecutive month and hit a new high of seven months. It shows that the steady growth of the economy is further consolidated and shows a modest recovery. Basic trend. The PMI index continued to rebound slightly in November, indicating that the future economic growth will continue to maintain a modest recovery. The new orders, export orders, and backlog orders index have increased to varying degrees. The finished goods inventory, purchase volume, and raw materials inventory index have all increased slightly, indicating that destocking activities have begun to shift to replenishment, and the industrial production level is expected to continue to increase. The fall in the purchase price index may reflect the fact that market confidence is not yet stable and the strength of the economic recovery is weak.

HSBC China PMI Index Returns to Above 50 for the First Time in 13 Months HSBC Bank announced on November 3 that the final HSBC China Manufacturing PMI figure was 50.5, slightly higher than the initial value of 50.4, and returned to more than 50 for the first time in 13 months (October It is 49.5). The new orders index was 50.8 in November, slightly lower than the 51.2 in October. New export orders recorded a year-high of 52.1 (46.7 in October). The employment index is still below 50, but the decline has narrowed to 49 (48.5 in October). The growth momentum measure of new orders reduced finished product inventory fell from 2.9 in October to 2 in November, which is the next highest level in a year. Finished goods inventory was 48.8, up slightly from 48.4 in October. In November, purchase volume and raw material inventory all rebounded, the purchase volume index rose to 52.7, and raw material inventory rose to above 50 (50.2) for the first time since October 2011. In November, the input price index continued to rise to 53, indicating that corporate procurement demand continued to pick up.

Politburo Conference: To Maintain the Continuity of Macroeconomic Policies** The Politburo held a meeting on December 4th. The meeting proposed to maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, and strive to increase the relevance and effectiveness of these policies and conduct timely and appropriate measures. Pre-adjustment fine-tuning, strengthen policy coordination. It is necessary to focus on expanding domestic demand, accelerating the development of a number of new growth points that are highly motivated, promoting stable investment growth and structural optimization, and continuing to strictly control the blind expansion of the “two highs” and overcapacity industries. It is necessary to strengthen the capacity for irrigation and water conservancy and disaster prevention and reduction. We must speed up industrial transformation and upgrading, give full play to the leading role of independent innovation in structural adjustment, support enterprises to take the lead in implementing major national science and technology projects with clear industrial targets, promote mergers and reorganizations of overcapacity industries, support the advancement of disadvantages, support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, and develop production. ** Industry, strengthen ecological construction. It is necessary to actively and steadily promote urbanization, increase the overall carrying capacity of urban areas, increase the level of land conservation and intensive use, and promote the urbanization of agricultural transfer population in an orderly manner. It is necessary to thoroughly implement the overall strategy for regional development, accelerate the development of concentrated special hard-to-reach areas, and develop the marine economy. It is necessary to continuously increase the level of opening up to the outside world, optimize the structure of foreign trade, improve and stabilize export policies, actively increase imports, seize the opportunity to promote enterprises to go global, and support the opening up of inland and border areas. We must strengthen control of the real estate market and housing security, strengthen social services and management, and maintain social harmony and stability.

Industry News:

Maanshan Iron & Steel plans to phase out 2.8 million tons of ironmaking and 3.4 million tons of steelmaking capacity According to Masteel's announcement, the National Development and Reform Commission has agreed in principle that the company will implement Masteel (Hefei) Steel Co., Ltd. under the premise of reducing the total scale of steel in Anhui Province. Environmental relocation project. The announcement shows that after the implementation of the project, Maanshan Iron and Steel will eliminate Hefei's 1.9 million tons of iron-smelting capacity and 2 million tons of steel-making capacity, and Masteel's headquarters will have 900,000 tons of iron-smelting capacity and 1.4 million steel-making capacity. Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. said that the total investment in the above projects was 20,788 million yuan (including ** 254,730,000 US dollars), of which construction investment was 18.722 billion yuan, construction period interest was 955 million yuan, and initial working capital was 1.111 billion yuan, of which the company had its own funds. 103.94 billion yuan, accounting for 50% of the total investment, the remaining part of the application for bank **.

Forty-seven cities will limit the "12th Five-Year Plan" for prevention and control of atmospheric pollution in key areas (hereinafter referred to as the "Planning") on the 5th. This document, issued by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Finance and approved by the State Council, stipulates that 47 cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing and other municipalities and 15 provincial capitals, will strictly restrict steel, cement, High-pollution projects in the petrochemical, chemical and non-ferrous industries. According to the planning requirements, the key control areas are prohibited from newly adding, renovating, and expanding coal-fired power plants other than “large and small pressure” and cogeneration, and strictly limit high-pollution projects in the iron and steel, cement, petrochemical, chemical, and nonferrous metals industries. Urban built-up areas, city-level and above municipal districts are forbidden to newly build high-pollution projects in industries such as coal-fired electricity, iron and steel, building materials, coking, non-ferrous metals, petrochemical, and chemical industries other than cogeneration.

China Steel Association: In the second half of November, the average daily output of crude steel rebounded slightly. According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel in the staff of the steel associations at the end of November was 1.641 million tons, up by 0.5% from the previous month, and the national average daily average was The output was 1,795,900 tons, an increase of 0.81 million tons from the middle of November and a 0.4% increase from the previous month.

The previous session of the thread ** rose 7 days on the main contract rose 1.27%

The rebar main 1305 contract was opened at 3,595 yuan/ton in the morning on the 7th, and then the price showed upward momentum throughout the day. It was the lowest in the day at 3,590 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,658 yuan/ton, and it was closed at 3,656 yuan/ton. On the trading day (6th), the settlement price rose by 46 yuan/ton, with 2,735,394 trading hands, and 1,361,540 hand positions, an increase of 117,056 contracts.

Downstream demand:

According to statistics from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, from January to October, 7.22 million sets of newly-built urban housing security projects have been completed, and the total investment is 1.08 billion yuan, and basically 505 million sets have been completed. "5 million sets" mission. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, 36 billion sets of affordable housing construction targets for cities and towns have been established. In 2011, 10 million units have been started. More than 7 million units will be started this year, and the number of affordable housing projects planned for next year will not be less than 5 million units.

The overall downturn of construction machinery in the first 10 months According to the production and operation report of the construction machinery industry, in October, the total industrial output value of the construction machinery industry in China reached 42.263 billion yuan, an increase of -9.19% year-on-year, an increase of -4.14% year-on-year, and a sales value of 41.973 billion yuan. The year-on-year increase was -7.74%, and the increase was -8.03%. From January to October, China's construction machinery industry achieved a total industrial output value of 501.633 billion yuan, an increase of only 1.53% year-on-year, and the sales value of 492.263 billion yuan was completed, an increase of only 2.5% year-on-year. Statistics show that sales of excavators fell by 36.74% year-on-year in January-October; loader sales decreased by 28.54% year-on-year; bulldozer sales decreased by 29.75% year-on-year; roller sales decreased 40.23% year-on-year; and truck crane sales fell 37.61% year-on-year.

The 12th Five-Year Plan for Natural Gas Development was issued on December 3. The National Development and Reform Commission issued the “12th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Natural Gas” (hereinafter referred to as “Planning”). The plan predicts that during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China's annual average new natural gas consumption will exceed 20 billion cubic meters, and by 2015 it will reach 230 billion cubic meters. Among them, about 176 billion cubic meters of domestic gas and about 93.5 billion cubic meters of imported natural gas. It is expected that the total length of construction pipelines in China will exceed 40,000 kilometers, and the construction of gas storage will exceed 20 billion cubic meters.

During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, 44,000 kilometers of new natural gas pipelines (including feeder lines) will be built, the capacity of mainline pipelines will increase by approximately 150 billion cubic meters per year, and the newly added gas storage capacity will be approximately 22 billion cubic meters, accounting for approximately 2015 natural gas. 9% of total consumption; urban emergency and peak-to-peak storage capacity reaches 1.5 billion cubic meters.

At the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, a national backbone with the major arteries connecting the West-East Gas Pipeline, the Sichuan-East Gas Pipeline, the Shaanxi-Beijing Line, and the main coastal arteries will be formed, linking the four major import strategic channels, major production areas, consumer areas, and gas storages. Pipe network, the formation of multi-gas supply, multi-modal peaking, stable and safe supply pattern.

The National Development and Reform Commission has intensively approved a total of 11.4 billion yuan in power transmission and transformation projects. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission approved 8 power investment projects with a total amount of approximately 11.4 billion yuan. Among them, there are six projects involving power transmission and transformation projects: Huainan Kongdian, Puyang Sutun (Fuyang II) two 500 kV power transmission and transformation projects, Tongling Guanshan, Hefei Zhongxing, Xinhui and Huaibei. The four 500 kV substation expansion projects in Caoxi are located in Anhui Province. Statistics show that since April of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission approved a total of 16 transmission and substation projects. The total amount of dynamic investment that has been announced is 3.362 billion yuan, distributed in Henan, Anhui, Ningxia, Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Jilin. Western provinces. The newly approved power transmission and transformation project is expected to start construction within three years. The end of this year to the beginning of next year will be the tendering stage for equipment procurement at the beginning of the project. This stage will be mainly conducive to manufacturers of transmission and distribution equipment, including power transmission and transformation. Tower, power distribution equipment, etc.