In the European debt crisis, "double anti-" investigation and overcapacity, industry confusion and other internal and external problems, once the fierce photovoltaic industry entered the winter period in 2011. As the most important planning document for the "12th Five-Year Plan" of the photovoltaic industry, the "Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan for Solar Photovoltaic Industry" (hereinafter referred to as the "Planning") has been released a few days ago.
Industry sources pointed out that the development goals of large-scale industrial development are in line with the development direction of the industry. Large-scale enterprises have high market competitiveness, product quality, and technological innovation capabilities, which are conducive to standardization of market competition that is conducive to the current industrial disorder. development of.
-- From the trend of large-scale development, the leading industry leaders in the industry are planning to propose that by 2015, polysilicon leading enterprises will reach 50,000 tons, and backbone enterprises will reach 10,000 tons; solar cell leaders will reach 5GW, and backbone enterprises will reach GW levels. . At the same time, it will further set up an access mechanism to plan the development of the industry to avoid the problems brought about by the influx of funds.
Huang Qigang, vice president of Tongwei Group, said that at present, the photovoltaic industry is at a critical stage of collective winter, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued this plan in a timely manner, especially to support enterprises with strength and competitiveness, which is undoubtedly good for the development of the entire industry. For the leading photovoltaic companies, the further increase in concentration will bring about positive effects. The expansion of production scale can also further reduce production costs.
It is understood that China's current photovoltaic companies close to 600, and since the 2010 hot market, the domestic companies have expanded production, photovoltaic products in 2011 has clearly oversupply. The living environment of SMEs is deteriorating.
Stanley Securities industry analyst Zhang Shuai also believes that the fierce competition and the sharp drop in product prices have caused many mid-to-lower companies to cut production or stop production. The competitive advantages of low-cost companies will gradually become prominent, and the combination of leading companies in different sectors will become an important trend. With the reorganization of photovoltaic companies, large-scale enterprises will seize more market share, while the proportion of total solar power in the mainland still has a lot of room for improvement. The CEC's national capacity for generating electricity in 2011 was only 2.14 million kilowatts of grid-connected solar energy, which is a low percentage compared to the total 1.06 billion kilowatts, and has huge potential for development.
- Cost is still the core element of the photovoltaic industry For a long time, the high cost of power generation has been the main bottleneck restricting the development of the photovoltaic industry. According to the National Development and Reform Commission’s earlier-announced PV on-grid tariffs, the on-grid tariffs for photovoltaic power projects approved around July 1 this year were 1.15 yuan and 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour, respectively, but they are still expensive relative to the current thermal power prices. At about half, the decline in the cost of the industry in the future is a general trend.
In this regard, the plan proposes that by 2015, the cost of photovoltaic modules will be reduced to 7,000 yuan/kW, the cost of photovoltaic systems will drop to 13,000 yuan/kW, and the cost of power generation will drop to 0.8 yuan/kWh. By 2020, the cost of photovoltaic modules will decrease. At RMB 5,000/kW, the cost of photovoltaic systems dropped to RMB 10,000/kW, and the cost of power generation dropped to RMB 0.6/kWh.
Zhou Liqian, senior analyst at Everbright Securities, said that the development of the entire solar PV industry will still focus on how to effectively reduce the cost of photovoltaic systems, how to effectively promote the continuous decline in the cost of solar cells and photovoltaic systems and achieve substantial meaning of the "parity Internet access." It will be the core element and industry theme for the development of the photovoltaic industry. Silicon materials, components and related parts and components will face market pressure of rapid price cuts, and photovoltaic power generation systems will continue to develop toward high efficiency and low cost.
Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, believes that by then the Northwestern region should be able to achieve the target of 0.8 yuan/kWh, while other regions will find it difficult to reduce to that level, which is also difficult to make photovoltaic power generation competitive. Higher than wind power costs of 0.5 yuan/kWh, not to mention 0.3 yuan/kWh, the price still needs to be further reduced.
-- The photovoltaic market application field will effectively expand According to the "planning", China's solar photovoltaic and smart grid in 2015 energy science and technology development goals are: to improve the efficiency of solar cells, and to achieve low-cost, large-scale industrial applications, the development of 100MW class with Various kinds of solar energy integration and grid-connected operation technologies with independent intellectual property rights; complete autonomy of key technologies and equipment for large-capacity, long-distance, high-voltage transmission, improved power transmission capacity of the grid and ability to resist natural disasters, and achieved technological breakthroughs.
With the issuance and issuance of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, the solar photovoltaic market application area will be effectively broadened, and application technology is expected to continue to expand. Insiders of Hanergy Holding Group stated that this plan will bring opportunities to the thin film photovoltaic industry. According to regulations, in the next few years, China will increase investment in photovoltaic building integration technology. Thin film PV modules have many advantages in the BIPV project, so the program is beneficial to the company's future production and sales.
Zhou Liqian analyzed that in the next 3-5 years, in addition to large-scale grid-connected photovoltaic power plants, photovoltaic power generation systems combined with buildings, small-scale photovoltaic systems, off-grid photovoltaic systems, etc. will also become emerging drivers of growth in the domestic photovoltaic power generation market.
In the long term, there is no doubt about the development potential of the domestic photovoltaic industry. However, it cannot be denied that, in the short term, the uncertainties in the European market, the probability of price cuts in major photovoltaic markets in Germany and other countries surpassing expectations have increased, making the short-term global photovoltaic industry The volatility has intensified, adding to the uncertainty of the recovery of the short-term photovoltaic industry.
Industry sources pointed out that the development goals of large-scale industrial development are in line with the development direction of the industry. Large-scale enterprises have high market competitiveness, product quality, and technological innovation capabilities, which are conducive to standardization of market competition that is conducive to the current industrial disorder. development of.
-- From the trend of large-scale development, the leading industry leaders in the industry are planning to propose that by 2015, polysilicon leading enterprises will reach 50,000 tons, and backbone enterprises will reach 10,000 tons; solar cell leaders will reach 5GW, and backbone enterprises will reach GW levels. . At the same time, it will further set up an access mechanism to plan the development of the industry to avoid the problems brought about by the influx of funds.
Huang Qigang, vice president of Tongwei Group, said that at present, the photovoltaic industry is at a critical stage of collective winter, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued this plan in a timely manner, especially to support enterprises with strength and competitiveness, which is undoubtedly good for the development of the entire industry. For the leading photovoltaic companies, the further increase in concentration will bring about positive effects. The expansion of production scale can also further reduce production costs.
It is understood that China's current photovoltaic companies close to 600, and since the 2010 hot market, the domestic companies have expanded production, photovoltaic products in 2011 has clearly oversupply. The living environment of SMEs is deteriorating.
Stanley Securities industry analyst Zhang Shuai also believes that the fierce competition and the sharp drop in product prices have caused many mid-to-lower companies to cut production or stop production. The competitive advantages of low-cost companies will gradually become prominent, and the combination of leading companies in different sectors will become an important trend. With the reorganization of photovoltaic companies, large-scale enterprises will seize more market share, while the proportion of total solar power in the mainland still has a lot of room for improvement. The CEC's national capacity for generating electricity in 2011 was only 2.14 million kilowatts of grid-connected solar energy, which is a low percentage compared to the total 1.06 billion kilowatts, and has huge potential for development.
- Cost is still the core element of the photovoltaic industry For a long time, the high cost of power generation has been the main bottleneck restricting the development of the photovoltaic industry. According to the National Development and Reform Commission’s earlier-announced PV on-grid tariffs, the on-grid tariffs for photovoltaic power projects approved around July 1 this year were 1.15 yuan and 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour, respectively, but they are still expensive relative to the current thermal power prices. At about half, the decline in the cost of the industry in the future is a general trend.
In this regard, the plan proposes that by 2015, the cost of photovoltaic modules will be reduced to 7,000 yuan/kW, the cost of photovoltaic systems will drop to 13,000 yuan/kW, and the cost of power generation will drop to 0.8 yuan/kWh. By 2020, the cost of photovoltaic modules will decrease. At RMB 5,000/kW, the cost of photovoltaic systems dropped to RMB 10,000/kW, and the cost of power generation dropped to RMB 0.6/kWh.
Zhou Liqian, senior analyst at Everbright Securities, said that the development of the entire solar PV industry will still focus on how to effectively reduce the cost of photovoltaic systems, how to effectively promote the continuous decline in the cost of solar cells and photovoltaic systems and achieve substantial meaning of the "parity Internet access." It will be the core element and industry theme for the development of the photovoltaic industry. Silicon materials, components and related parts and components will face market pressure of rapid price cuts, and photovoltaic power generation systems will continue to develop toward high efficiency and low cost.
Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, believes that by then the Northwestern region should be able to achieve the target of 0.8 yuan/kWh, while other regions will find it difficult to reduce to that level, which is also difficult to make photovoltaic power generation competitive. Higher than wind power costs of 0.5 yuan/kWh, not to mention 0.3 yuan/kWh, the price still needs to be further reduced.
-- The photovoltaic market application field will effectively expand According to the "planning", China's solar photovoltaic and smart grid in 2015 energy science and technology development goals are: to improve the efficiency of solar cells, and to achieve low-cost, large-scale industrial applications, the development of 100MW class with Various kinds of solar energy integration and grid-connected operation technologies with independent intellectual property rights; complete autonomy of key technologies and equipment for large-capacity, long-distance, high-voltage transmission, improved power transmission capacity of the grid and ability to resist natural disasters, and achieved technological breakthroughs.
With the issuance and issuance of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, the solar photovoltaic market application area will be effectively broadened, and application technology is expected to continue to expand. Insiders of Hanergy Holding Group stated that this plan will bring opportunities to the thin film photovoltaic industry. According to regulations, in the next few years, China will increase investment in photovoltaic building integration technology. Thin film PV modules have many advantages in the BIPV project, so the program is beneficial to the company's future production and sales.
Zhou Liqian analyzed that in the next 3-5 years, in addition to large-scale grid-connected photovoltaic power plants, photovoltaic power generation systems combined with buildings, small-scale photovoltaic systems, off-grid photovoltaic systems, etc. will also become emerging drivers of growth in the domestic photovoltaic power generation market.
In the long term, there is no doubt about the development potential of the domestic photovoltaic industry. However, it cannot be denied that, in the short term, the uncertainties in the European market, the probability of price cuts in major photovoltaic markets in Germany and other countries surpassing expectations have increased, making the short-term global photovoltaic industry The volatility has intensified, adding to the uncertainty of the recovery of the short-term photovoltaic industry.
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