In early 2011, the main rebar 1110 contract rose to the annual highest point of 5,230 yuan/ton in the speculation of iron ore prices, followed by a significant correction, and stabilized at the lowest point of 4,627 yuan/ton. Due to the continuous tightening of macro monetary policy, the rebar 1110 contract has remained at the bottom of the 4671-4965 yuan/ton range, and there has not been a large-scale market.
Rebar's enthusiasm for participating in funds has also gradually declined. The amount of energy can be significantly reduced compared to last year. It should have been the main force during the first half of the month before the main contract reached the delivery month, and as of mid-July, the 1110 contract is still the main force. The month-to-month progress is slow, and the participation of late-stage funds will have a greater impact on the increase in futures prices.
From the performance of spot prices, the spot price of rebar has undergone a process of rising, falling, and rebounding. However, overall, it does not fluctuate as much as the futures price, and the spot price shifts upwards, creating a downward trend with the oscillation of the period price. In stark contrast. Judging from the price trends in the major regions of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, Shanghai’s tertiary rebar prices have risen by nearly RMB 400/t in half a year, while Beijing’s price increase has exceeded RMB 500/t. Although Guangzhou’s prices have seen the smallest increase, there are also 200 Yu Yuan / ton, the spot price is the highest in these three places, the national market price remained stable, and did not follow the fall in price. In the event that the spot price continued to be strong, the period price appeared to be greatly discounted, and the premium was once over 200 yuan/ton. Judging from the performance of futures prices, there will be some arbitrage opportunities in the future.
In the period of arbitrage, we observed the spread performance of steel products and spot prices during the first six months. We found that there was a significant divergence between the two. The spot price of rebar rose strongly and was still at a record high in early June. Trends, spot prices have continued to rise at the bottom since 2009, and the long-term upward trend has not yet ended. However, since its declining in February, the rebar ** has not been able to hit new highs with spot prices, and spot prices have continued to climb slightly since May, while weaker oscillations and higher highs have declined, technically forming a downward trend, and rebar futures prices breaking upwards. Pressure is greater. ** Trends deviated from the spot, the forward contract price is far lower than the spot price, and the forward contract is still at a discount. There is a certain amount of arbitrage opportunities between periods, and companies may consider replacing their stocks with stocks to reduce inventory costs.
Interim arbitrage in the early stage of the continuous process of bottoming, far month 1201 contract price and the main force 1110 contract price inversion phenomenon is more serious, the current range has been far from the normal spread, the latter there is a need for return. We observed that the price difference during the uptrend was strengthened by the 1201 contract and the 1110 contract was weakened. The main 1110 contract will enter the settlement after three months. The current main force will be accompanied by arbitrage Trading opportunities. In addition, combined with the above analysis, we believe that the possibility of higher rebar prices in the later period is more likely, and the rational return of the spread will be dominated by the strong 1201 contract. Therefore, the current arbitrage to buy a long-distance investment will have a good return.
It is worth noting that the current trend of rebar is facing a certain degree of capital participation bottlenecks, the activeness of the main contract is weakening, and the time for moving the warehouse and changing month is lagging behind, which will drag the spread back into the process. From the current price premiums and premiums chart, we can see that since the beginning of this year, the price of ** has remained at a discounted level for a long time, and the performance of ** has been relatively weak. Therefore, arbitrage operations may be subject to the problem of financial participation, and the expected benefits may be difficult to achieve.
Rebar's enthusiasm for participating in funds has also gradually declined. The amount of energy can be significantly reduced compared to last year. It should have been the main force during the first half of the month before the main contract reached the delivery month, and as of mid-July, the 1110 contract is still the main force. The month-to-month progress is slow, and the participation of late-stage funds will have a greater impact on the increase in futures prices.
From the performance of spot prices, the spot price of rebar has undergone a process of rising, falling, and rebounding. However, overall, it does not fluctuate as much as the futures price, and the spot price shifts upwards, creating a downward trend with the oscillation of the period price. In stark contrast. Judging from the price trends in the major regions of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, Shanghai’s tertiary rebar prices have risen by nearly RMB 400/t in half a year, while Beijing’s price increase has exceeded RMB 500/t. Although Guangzhou’s prices have seen the smallest increase, there are also 200 Yu Yuan / ton, the spot price is the highest in these three places, the national market price remained stable, and did not follow the fall in price. In the event that the spot price continued to be strong, the period price appeared to be greatly discounted, and the premium was once over 200 yuan/ton. Judging from the performance of futures prices, there will be some arbitrage opportunities in the future.
In the period of arbitrage, we observed the spread performance of steel products and spot prices during the first six months. We found that there was a significant divergence between the two. The spot price of rebar rose strongly and was still at a record high in early June. Trends, spot prices have continued to rise at the bottom since 2009, and the long-term upward trend has not yet ended. However, since its declining in February, the rebar ** has not been able to hit new highs with spot prices, and spot prices have continued to climb slightly since May, while weaker oscillations and higher highs have declined, technically forming a downward trend, and rebar futures prices breaking upwards. Pressure is greater. ** Trends deviated from the spot, the forward contract price is far lower than the spot price, and the forward contract is still at a discount. There is a certain amount of arbitrage opportunities between periods, and companies may consider replacing their stocks with stocks to reduce inventory costs.
Interim arbitrage in the early stage of the continuous process of bottoming, far month 1201 contract price and the main force 1110 contract price inversion phenomenon is more serious, the current range has been far from the normal spread, the latter there is a need for return. We observed that the price difference during the uptrend was strengthened by the 1201 contract and the 1110 contract was weakened. The main 1110 contract will enter the settlement after three months. The current main force will be accompanied by arbitrage Trading opportunities. In addition, combined with the above analysis, we believe that the possibility of higher rebar prices in the later period is more likely, and the rational return of the spread will be dominated by the strong 1201 contract. Therefore, the current arbitrage to buy a long-distance investment will have a good return.
It is worth noting that the current trend of rebar is facing a certain degree of capital participation bottlenecks, the activeness of the main contract is weakening, and the time for moving the warehouse and changing month is lagging behind, which will drag the spread back into the process. From the current price premiums and premiums chart, we can see that since the beginning of this year, the price of ** has remained at a discounted level for a long time, and the performance of ** has been relatively weak. Therefore, arbitrage operations may be subject to the problem of financial participation, and the expected benefits may be difficult to achieve.
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