The overall price level is one of the important factors affecting electricity price adjustment, which is usually based on CPI. The current CPI has already passed the high point and is expected to decline in the next few months.
Although the CPI was relatively high before the price increase in July and August 2008, it reached 7.1% in June, but it has already passed the high point and is on a downward trend. In the same period of 2-4 months, it was above 8%, with a maximum of 8.7%. However, it has fallen to 7.7% in May and dropped to 6.3% and 4.9% in July and August respectively. Therefore, at that time, the restrictions on raising the price of electricity CPI were greatly reduced.
In November 2009, the price adjustment was not very bad from the performance of listed companies. After all, there was an EPS of 0.0973 yuan (the whole method), but the CPI was lower in the current year, and both were negative in February and October, only in November. It is 0.6%. Therefore, there is no major concern with regard to the overall level of prices. The main factor for raising electricity prices in the year should be a large increase in the price of thermal coal. The price of electricity will be adjusted to reduce the cost pressure of thermal power enterprises. However, it is not an overall upward adjustment, but an adjustment that has been raised and lowered.
Looking at the increase in electricity prices in April this year, although there was no loss in the first quarter of this year, it was almost loss-making, and the earnings per share was only 0.0093 yuan. The thermal coal price is still fluctuating at a high level. Although it is already in the off-season, the coal price has not dropped significantly. After June, it will enter the peak season in summer. If the price is not raised, the thermal power enterprise may enter the loss again. But the concern is that CPI is going up at the time, reaching 5.4% in March. This is the case, when the price of electricity is raised, only the electricity prices of 15 provinces are raised, and the range is different. The minimum on-grid price per kWh is only 1.24 points.
High coal price promotes "man-made" power shortage
The high price of thermal coal undoubtedly worsened the difficult thermal power companies, and made the power supply situation in winter this year even more optimistic. On October 27th, the China Electricity Council announced the national electricity supply and demand analysis and forecast report for the first three quarters of 2011, predicting that the country's largest power gap will reach 30 million to 40 million kilowatts this winter and next spring. This conclusion is beyond the expectations of the SERC. On October 20, the Electricity Regulatory Commission predicted that the biggest power gap this winter and spring will be about 26 million kilowatts.
This means that the power shortage starting this spring will continue until the spring of next year, and the power shortage has also set a historical record for nearly a year. Combing the relationship between the power shortage in the past two years and the electricity consumption of the whole society, and find that this year's power shortage has not only lasted for a long time, but also has the characteristics of "man-made".
In 2010, with the economic recovery, the total electricity consumption of the whole society reached 418.982 billion kWh, an increase of 14.76% year-on-year, of which industrial electricity consumption reached 309.637 billion kWh, an increase of 15.73%. The increase in industrial electricity consumption, especially in high-energy-consuming enterprises, is seen as an important cause of power shortages last year.
However, this year's economic growth rate and the growth rate of social power consumption have declined, and the power shortage has intensified. In the first three quarters of this year, the growth rate of industrial added value slowed down quarter by quarter, with an increase of 14.4% in the first quarter, 14% in the second quarter, and 13.8% in the third quarter. With the slowdown in economic growth, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society also declined. In the first three quarters, the social power consumption increased by 12.7%, 11.7% and 11.5% respectively. However, the power shortage has persisted. The actual power gap in the summer of this year reached 23 million kilowatts, and many peaks used electricity. Today, the peak of the peak winter is coming.
Lin Boqiang, an energy economist and director of the Xiamen University Energy Economic Research Center, believes that this year's power shortage is mainly affected by "human" factors. He pointed out that in terms of installed capacity and unit utilization rate, theoretically, there is still more than 10% room for improvement in unit utilization hours. However, due to the tight supply of coal and coal prices, the price of coal has “restricted†the enthusiasm of power generation enterprises.
Power coal prices stabilized at a high level
From the end of the third quarter to the beginning of the fourth quarter, the major power plants prepared for the winter coal, and the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim began to rise from September 7. The latest data released by the shipping coal network on the 2nd showed that the comprehensive average price of thermal coal in the 5500 kcal market in the Bohai Sea area closed at 853 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous reporting period. The price is the highest price since the index was released. The comprehensive average price of thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal market has risen by 28 yuan/ton since the current round.
According to Li Xuegang, general manager of the Qinhuangdao Coal Trading Market, from the data collected on the transaction prices of the six ports in the Bohai Rim, the port specifications of the 24 port specifications in the reporting period increased from 11 in the previous reporting period. It has reached 13; the port specifications with flat prices have been reduced from 12 in the previous reporting period to 10; the port specifications with lower prices have remained in the previous reporting period.
The recent extraordinary increase in non-coking coal imports in China also indicates that domestic demand for thermal coal is strong. According to Li Xuegang, China imported 19.12 million tons of coal in September, an increase of 25.1% year-on-year, creating a new high in history. Among them, non-coking coal imports were 15.23 million tons, an increase of 4.07 million tons, an increase of 36.5%. The highest record of single-month imports.
According to industry analysts, the recent low proportion of domestic hydropower output makes the demand for thermal coal relatively strong, and the thermal coal price will continue to remain at a high level. Affected by the drought conditions in Southwest China and Guangxi, the number of hydropower utilization hours dropped significantly this year, while the fourth quarter was a dry season. It is expected that hydropower will still be weak, and the thermal power supply load will increase. From the perspective of power plant inventory, the recent thermal power inventory of key power generation companies nationwide has rebounded rapidly, from 64.45 million tons at the end of September to nearly 71.2 million tons on October 20.
Near the winter heating season, the price of thermal coal has risen again. The latest phase of the Bohai Sea thermal coal price index shows that the continuous upward momentum of the thermal coal price has weakened, but the price remains high. Since the beginning of this year, the domestic power shortage has lasted longer than in previous years. The China Electricity Council has predicted that the country's largest power gap will reach 30 million to 40 million kilowatts this winter and next spring. The power shortage in this winter and the next spring seems to be a foregone conclusion. The industry's expectation of an increase in electricity prices may reduce the "man-made" power shortage. However, the expectation of a drop in coal prices due to weaker terminal demand may make it difficult to raise electricity prices in the short term.
Is the price of electricity still lowering the price of coal?
Since the beginning of this year, the power industry has continued to bear tremendous pressure from high coal prices and rising interest rates, resulting in production and operation and power supply. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to August, interest expenses of thermal power producers were 47.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, which was one of the main causes of thermal power losses. Although thermal power producers realized a total profit of 12.2 billion yuan, they fell 39.1% year-on-year. And continued to grow negatively every month this year.
The three quarterly report that just ended, also shows that power companies are experiencing a cold winter. According to statistics, among the 29 thermal power companies, the net profit of 13 companies declined, and 10 companies lost money in the first three quarters. Huaneng Power International (600011), which ranked first in revenue, achieved a total operating revenue of 99.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters, compared with 76.8 billion yuan in the same period last year, and net profit of 1.41 billion yuan in the first three quarters, which was more than the previous year's 3.146 billion yuan. half.
It is precisely because of the lack of power generation by power companies that the industry is expecting an increase in electricity prices. According to relevant sources of power generation companies, if the growth rate of CPI continues to decline, the relevant authorities may consider raising the price. It is also known that after the National Development and Reform Commission raised the on-grid tariffs in some regions on June 1, the gross profit margin of the thermal power industry in the second quarter increased by 2.23 percentage points. Wang Fan, an analyst at Ping An Securities, believes that the subsequent increase in coal prices has swallowed up the profits of power generation companies, so the industry is generally looking forward to re-adjusting electricity prices.
However, the upward trend of this round of thermal coal prices has weakened, and some analysts said that the terminal impact of steel production cuts may be reflected after the Spring Festival next year. Once the price of thermal coal falls reasonably, the possibility of electricity price adjustment will be greatly reduced.
Judging from the monitoring of the Qinhuangdao seaborne coal market, the offshore coal freight rates of major domestic routes continue to fall, while the decline in port coal sea freight rates indicates a slowdown in demand in the near future. After the completion of the Daqin line maintenance work on October 2, coal inventories of major coal shipping ports such as Qinhuangdao and Caofeidian gradually recovered. The tightness of coal resources in major shipping ports was improved, and the support for market price of thermal coal or high-level operation was also improved. Weakened.
Affected by the weakening of terminal demand, the coal consumption level of power plants has also continued to decline recently. According to Zhongneng Power Industrial Fuel Company, the average daily coal consumption from October 1 to 20 fell to less than 3.46 million tons, which was 280,000 tons lower than the average daily consumption level in September. According to the calculation of the coal consumption level, the current available days of thermal coal inventory exceeds 20 days, which is at a high level. Li Xuegang said that this situation will reduce the demand for power coal winter storage in power companies and reduce the enthusiasm of coal procurement. He also believes that a large number of non-coking coal imports and the inertia of import growth will dilute the demand for domestic trade coal in the coastal consumption areas in the later period and weaken the domestic coal price increase momentum.
Although the CPI was relatively high before the price increase in July and August 2008, it reached 7.1% in June, but it has already passed the high point and is on a downward trend. In the same period of 2-4 months, it was above 8%, with a maximum of 8.7%. However, it has fallen to 7.7% in May and dropped to 6.3% and 4.9% in July and August respectively. Therefore, at that time, the restrictions on raising the price of electricity CPI were greatly reduced.
In November 2009, the price adjustment was not very bad from the performance of listed companies. After all, there was an EPS of 0.0973 yuan (the whole method), but the CPI was lower in the current year, and both were negative in February and October, only in November. It is 0.6%. Therefore, there is no major concern with regard to the overall level of prices. The main factor for raising electricity prices in the year should be a large increase in the price of thermal coal. The price of electricity will be adjusted to reduce the cost pressure of thermal power enterprises. However, it is not an overall upward adjustment, but an adjustment that has been raised and lowered.
Looking at the increase in electricity prices in April this year, although there was no loss in the first quarter of this year, it was almost loss-making, and the earnings per share was only 0.0093 yuan. The thermal coal price is still fluctuating at a high level. Although it is already in the off-season, the coal price has not dropped significantly. After June, it will enter the peak season in summer. If the price is not raised, the thermal power enterprise may enter the loss again. But the concern is that CPI is going up at the time, reaching 5.4% in March. This is the case, when the price of electricity is raised, only the electricity prices of 15 provinces are raised, and the range is different. The minimum on-grid price per kWh is only 1.24 points.
High coal price promotes "man-made" power shortage
The high price of thermal coal undoubtedly worsened the difficult thermal power companies, and made the power supply situation in winter this year even more optimistic. On October 27th, the China Electricity Council announced the national electricity supply and demand analysis and forecast report for the first three quarters of 2011, predicting that the country's largest power gap will reach 30 million to 40 million kilowatts this winter and next spring. This conclusion is beyond the expectations of the SERC. On October 20, the Electricity Regulatory Commission predicted that the biggest power gap this winter and spring will be about 26 million kilowatts.
This means that the power shortage starting this spring will continue until the spring of next year, and the power shortage has also set a historical record for nearly a year. Combing the relationship between the power shortage in the past two years and the electricity consumption of the whole society, and find that this year's power shortage has not only lasted for a long time, but also has the characteristics of "man-made".
In 2010, with the economic recovery, the total electricity consumption of the whole society reached 418.982 billion kWh, an increase of 14.76% year-on-year, of which industrial electricity consumption reached 309.637 billion kWh, an increase of 15.73%. The increase in industrial electricity consumption, especially in high-energy-consuming enterprises, is seen as an important cause of power shortages last year.
However, this year's economic growth rate and the growth rate of social power consumption have declined, and the power shortage has intensified. In the first three quarters of this year, the growth rate of industrial added value slowed down quarter by quarter, with an increase of 14.4% in the first quarter, 14% in the second quarter, and 13.8% in the third quarter. With the slowdown in economic growth, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society also declined. In the first three quarters, the social power consumption increased by 12.7%, 11.7% and 11.5% respectively. However, the power shortage has persisted. The actual power gap in the summer of this year reached 23 million kilowatts, and many peaks used electricity. Today, the peak of the peak winter is coming.
Lin Boqiang, an energy economist and director of the Xiamen University Energy Economic Research Center, believes that this year's power shortage is mainly affected by "human" factors. He pointed out that in terms of installed capacity and unit utilization rate, theoretically, there is still more than 10% room for improvement in unit utilization hours. However, due to the tight supply of coal and coal prices, the price of coal has “restricted†the enthusiasm of power generation enterprises.
Power coal prices stabilized at a high level
From the end of the third quarter to the beginning of the fourth quarter, the major power plants prepared for the winter coal, and the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim began to rise from September 7. The latest data released by the shipping coal network on the 2nd showed that the comprehensive average price of thermal coal in the 5500 kcal market in the Bohai Sea area closed at 853 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous reporting period. The price is the highest price since the index was released. The comprehensive average price of thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal market has risen by 28 yuan/ton since the current round.
According to Li Xuegang, general manager of the Qinhuangdao Coal Trading Market, from the data collected on the transaction prices of the six ports in the Bohai Rim, the port specifications of the 24 port specifications in the reporting period increased from 11 in the previous reporting period. It has reached 13; the port specifications with flat prices have been reduced from 12 in the previous reporting period to 10; the port specifications with lower prices have remained in the previous reporting period.
The recent extraordinary increase in non-coking coal imports in China also indicates that domestic demand for thermal coal is strong. According to Li Xuegang, China imported 19.12 million tons of coal in September, an increase of 25.1% year-on-year, creating a new high in history. Among them, non-coking coal imports were 15.23 million tons, an increase of 4.07 million tons, an increase of 36.5%. The highest record of single-month imports.
According to industry analysts, the recent low proportion of domestic hydropower output makes the demand for thermal coal relatively strong, and the thermal coal price will continue to remain at a high level. Affected by the drought conditions in Southwest China and Guangxi, the number of hydropower utilization hours dropped significantly this year, while the fourth quarter was a dry season. It is expected that hydropower will still be weak, and the thermal power supply load will increase. From the perspective of power plant inventory, the recent thermal power inventory of key power generation companies nationwide has rebounded rapidly, from 64.45 million tons at the end of September to nearly 71.2 million tons on October 20.
Near the winter heating season, the price of thermal coal has risen again. The latest phase of the Bohai Sea thermal coal price index shows that the continuous upward momentum of the thermal coal price has weakened, but the price remains high. Since the beginning of this year, the domestic power shortage has lasted longer than in previous years. The China Electricity Council has predicted that the country's largest power gap will reach 30 million to 40 million kilowatts this winter and next spring. The power shortage in this winter and the next spring seems to be a foregone conclusion. The industry's expectation of an increase in electricity prices may reduce the "man-made" power shortage. However, the expectation of a drop in coal prices due to weaker terminal demand may make it difficult to raise electricity prices in the short term.
Is the price of electricity still lowering the price of coal?
Since the beginning of this year, the power industry has continued to bear tremendous pressure from high coal prices and rising interest rates, resulting in production and operation and power supply. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to August, interest expenses of thermal power producers were 47.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, which was one of the main causes of thermal power losses. Although thermal power producers realized a total profit of 12.2 billion yuan, they fell 39.1% year-on-year. And continued to grow negatively every month this year.
The three quarterly report that just ended, also shows that power companies are experiencing a cold winter. According to statistics, among the 29 thermal power companies, the net profit of 13 companies declined, and 10 companies lost money in the first three quarters. Huaneng Power International (600011), which ranked first in revenue, achieved a total operating revenue of 99.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters, compared with 76.8 billion yuan in the same period last year, and net profit of 1.41 billion yuan in the first three quarters, which was more than the previous year's 3.146 billion yuan. half.
It is precisely because of the lack of power generation by power companies that the industry is expecting an increase in electricity prices. According to relevant sources of power generation companies, if the growth rate of CPI continues to decline, the relevant authorities may consider raising the price. It is also known that after the National Development and Reform Commission raised the on-grid tariffs in some regions on June 1, the gross profit margin of the thermal power industry in the second quarter increased by 2.23 percentage points. Wang Fan, an analyst at Ping An Securities, believes that the subsequent increase in coal prices has swallowed up the profits of power generation companies, so the industry is generally looking forward to re-adjusting electricity prices.
However, the upward trend of this round of thermal coal prices has weakened, and some analysts said that the terminal impact of steel production cuts may be reflected after the Spring Festival next year. Once the price of thermal coal falls reasonably, the possibility of electricity price adjustment will be greatly reduced.
Judging from the monitoring of the Qinhuangdao seaborne coal market, the offshore coal freight rates of major domestic routes continue to fall, while the decline in port coal sea freight rates indicates a slowdown in demand in the near future. After the completion of the Daqin line maintenance work on October 2, coal inventories of major coal shipping ports such as Qinhuangdao and Caofeidian gradually recovered. The tightness of coal resources in major shipping ports was improved, and the support for market price of thermal coal or high-level operation was also improved. Weakened.
Affected by the weakening of terminal demand, the coal consumption level of power plants has also continued to decline recently. According to Zhongneng Power Industrial Fuel Company, the average daily coal consumption from October 1 to 20 fell to less than 3.46 million tons, which was 280,000 tons lower than the average daily consumption level in September. According to the calculation of the coal consumption level, the current available days of thermal coal inventory exceeds 20 days, which is at a high level. Li Xuegang said that this situation will reduce the demand for power coal winter storage in power companies and reduce the enthusiasm of coal procurement. He also believes that a large number of non-coking coal imports and the inertia of import growth will dilute the demand for domestic trade coal in the coastal consumption areas in the later period and weaken the domestic coal price increase momentum.
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