Following the announcement by Russia of an export ban that has caused the global wheat price to be pushed up sharply, Ukraine also intends to limit grain exports in order to safeguard its domestic food security. Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture Puri Summer Nico recently stated that Ukrainian food production will be reduced due to dry weather. In the marketing year of agriculture from July to next June, a total of 16 million tons of grain can be exported, 5 million tons less than the previous year. .
Similar to 2008, the international grain speculation climax with “grain shortage†as an external manifestation will emerge in the second half of this year. Although this has no substantial impact on China's food security where there is food in the hands and there is no panic in the heart and there is a firewall in the international food market, the evolution of this trend should also be an inevitable choice for a rainy day.
From the perspective of national food security, the major Asian countries are basically not affected by the “international food shortage†because countries such as China, India, and Vietnam are all self-sufficient in grain, but if the international food prices continue to soar in the future, Restrictive measures to ensure domestic food security may be introduced. According to relevant statistics, China’s state-owned grain companies have a total inventories of more than 450 billion kilograms and an inventory ratio of more than 40%, far exceeding the internationally recognized safety line of 17% to 18%.
The countries most affected by the “International Grain Shortage†will be those countries and regions where food is heavily dependent on imports, such as Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. Because the Middle East is a “black gold zone†of oil resources, the impact of soaring food prices will not be too great. However, if the prosperous and poor countries of Africa and Latin America suffer from the soaring food prices similar to the 2008 “International Grain Shortageâ€, the domestic problems caused by food shortages will be extremely severe.
In fact, in terms of total amount, the world is currently not deprived of food, but bio-energy in Western countries such as the United States and Europe consumes at least a year's total grain consumption of hundreds of millions of people. According to the currently accepted data, a person’s rations for a year can only process about 70 liters of biofuels, and this 70 liters of biofuel can make an ordinary car run about 700 kilometers. Take corn as example for bioethanol production. While saving 2% of the world's oil consumption, it can create a driving force for food prices to rise by about 30%. It can be seen that the promotion of the bio-energy industry represented by Europe and the United States and the promotion of grain speculative capital is the “two-two will†of the “international grain shortage†phenomenon.
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