Photovoltaic industry development and investment trends are pointing to new technologies. Having experienced the decline in polysilicon prices, the rapid expansion of manufacturing, and the import substitution of supporting industries, the cost of photovoltaic power generation has fallen by half compared to 2008. In the later period, the marginal effect caused by the expansion of scale is decreasing, and the driving force of cost reduction will gradually shift to the new photovoltaic technology. As we can change the existing cost structure of the components and have the expectation of further reducing costs, we believe that the new photovoltaic technology will be the main driving force for reducing the cost by half by 2020. The application of new photovoltaic technology can drive down the cost of components by more than 50%. According to our optimism for the industrialization of various new photovoltaic technologies, we ranked them in order of: cold hydrogenation> quasi-single crystal ingot> diamond cutting> cell wafer efficiency reached 22%> physical silicon material> no shear loss / Silicon powder recovery. These new technologies can reduce the cost of components by 7, 8, 6, 20, 7, 10 cents/w, which means that if all technologies are applied in 2020, the cost of components will drop to less than $0.5/w. The promotion of new technologies will be the main driving force for the decline in the cost of components in the coming decade.
Polysilicon production: Cold hydrogenation is underway and physical methods are expected. Most foreign companies have used low-energy cold-hydrogenation technology. With the proliferation of this technology and the expiration of patents, a large number of companies are currently implementing cold-hydrogenation technology, which can increase production costs compared to thermal hydrogenation. Reduces $5/kg or more. The use of physical metallurgical methods to produce solar grade polysilicon is simpler than the chemical process and low in energy consumption. However, the current limit can only reach the purity of 6N. The conversion efficiency of the solar cell is not ideal, and it is difficult to make breakthroughs in the short term.
Pull crystal ingots: Quasi-single crystal ingots, no cutting damage technology will bring important changes. The quasi-single-crystal ingot was developed by JANUO, and seed crystal growth was added during the ingot casting process. Monocrystalline silicon wafers were produced at a low cost with polycrystalline ingots. We believe that the scale of this technology will be just around the corner. The non-cutting technology is to strip silicon wafers directly from silicon ingots by means of high-energy hydrogen proton beam radiation, or to directly grow silicon wafers from silicon materials, avoiding 45% of the silicon material in the chipping section, but due to these two methods The cost is still relatively high and there is still a distance from the actual application.
Slicing: Diamond cutting and silica fume recovery are based on existing cutting process improvements. The method of diamond cutting line can reduce the cost of cutting consumables, but it is mainly used for prescribing in short-term. It can not effectively solve the problem of scratches, chips, and wire diameters in the cutting of silicon wafers. The industry generally believes that it takes 5 years. The idea of ​​silica fume recovery is to repurify the high-purity silicon powder in the waste mortar for recycling. However, the technical difficulty is high. Currently, it is limited to research and development by scientific research institutions, and industrialized results have not yet appeared.
Cell: Many new technologies improve conversion efficiency. The efficiency of industrialization of solar cells is increasing at an average annual rate of 5%, and is expected to reach approximately 21% in 2015. By then, even if other costs remain unchanged, the cost per unit of module can also drop by 15% or 15 cents. At present, a variety of solar cell technologies based on N-type silicon all have the expectation of industrialization. We believe that solar cell technology is the most differentiated link in the photovoltaic industry chain, and it is most likely to breed high-growth companies.
Photovoltaic system: The system optimizes the power generation capacity. Through the application of tracking systems, micro-inverter systems, and software optimization, it is possible to increase the amount of power generated by the system, and thus dilute the cost of electricity, on the premise of unchanged installed capacity.
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