The National Development and Reform Commission thinks that the Chinese economy will slow down for three consecutive years.

Wang Jian, secretary-general of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomics Association, predicted at the Tsinghua University China and World Economic Forum that the Chinese economy will slow down for three consecutive years from this year. The most dangerous in 2013, macroeconomic regulation and control should shift from anti-inflation to growth. The forum was themed on “Deceleration, what it means”. Li Daokui, a member of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, as the moderator, asked each guest whether there is a slowdown in the Chinese economy and whether the slowdown is due to excessive policy adjustments. A number of well-known economists said that in addition to inflation, China's economic growth slowdown is also worthy of attention. Wang Jian, secretary-general of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomics Association, predicts that China's economy will slow down for three consecutive years from this year, and GDP growth will be 9%, 8%, and 7%, respectively. The most dangerous in 2013. He believes that the current investment data has been misunderstood: last year's investment growth rate was 23.8%, which was 25.8% in January-May this year, and it seems to have increased. However, the investment data refers to the amount of investment completed, does not represent the current investment demand, and the total investment in the construction project plan representing the current investment demand has been reduced. Ba Shusong, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that this slowdown is related to over-regulation of policies in the first half of the year. He believes that the current interest rate is high but the austerity policy is still going on. If the austerity policy is stopped after the CPI falls back and stabilizes, the GDP growth rate may have been declining for a long time. Chen Xingdong, chief economist of Asia Securities in Paris, France also believes that the policy contraction in the first half of the year was too tight and too fast, leading to economic slowdown. He said that the current economic growth rate is worse than the policy makers predicted, and the economy has a risk of a hard landing. Yuan Gangming, a researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said directly that the government's regulation of CPI was a failure, which led to a slowdown in the economy. If GDP growth is below 8%, the Chinese economy will experience a recession. Chen Dongqi, deputy dean of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute, differs from the above economists. He said that the Chinese economy is indeed decelerating, but the slowdown is normal and reasonable, not because of excessive policy adjustment. He believes that the Chinese economy will not experience a sharp decline, the government will adjust the policy, and the long-term momentum of economic growth will not disappear. For the macroeconomic regulation and control in the second half of the year, Wang Jian said that deceleration means a shift in policy. First, macroeconomic regulation and control should shift from anti-inflation to growth, and second, anti-inflation should shift from monetary policy to fiscal policy. Lei Dingming, director of the Department of Economics at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, which studies economic growth, suggests that governance inflation should be studied in agriculture to increase production and to expand agricultural production. "Current inflation, if you do not improve the price of agricultural products, everyone still thinks that consumption is more expensive."  

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