According to data released by the Ministry of Communications on June 9, the cargo throughput of China's domestic and foreign ports increased by 5.1% and 4.7% respectively in the same period of last year, both of which turned positive. Port cargo throughput has grown for three consecutive months.
The Ministry of Communications's Hydraulic Research Institute (which provides data support for the port cargo throughput of the Ministry of Communications), an analyst said on June 9 that the import of resource-based commodities including crude oil, iron ore, coal, and this The active domestic trade of commodities is the direct cause of the improvement of the above indicators.
However, "the situation of foreign trade exports has not yet been reversed," she said. Port container throughput, one of the key indicators reflecting exports, fell by 9.7% year-on-year in May. The bottom of the port throughput gradually rises, and the pattern of north heat and south cold remains.
According to data released by the Ministry of Communications, China's port cargo throughput is expected to reach 546 million tons in May, an increase of 5% year-on-year. Among them, foreign trade cargo throughput is expected to complete 182 million tons, an increase of 4.7% year-on-year; domestic trade cargo throughput is expected to complete 364 million tons, an increase of 5.1%. The two indicators increased by 3.3 and 4.6 percentage points respectively.
In fact, the foreign trade cargo throughput of China's ports in March and the domestic cargo throughput of April have seen a slight increase.
“In May, this increase was more obvious, and the recovery of the port economy continued,†said analysts from the Institute of Hydraulic Research of the Ministry of Communications. According to the comparable daily average, the daily average of January, March, and April The cargo throughput was 14.69 million tons, 16.14 million tons, and 17.28 million tons, and the signs of a gradual recovery at the bottom were very clear.
However, the rebound in port throughput does not mean that the foreign trade situation has improved.
“Container throughput is a more important indicator reflecting foreign trade import and export.†The above analysts pointed out that the unsatisfactory external demand caused the container throughput growth in May to still show a large decline year-on-year, and the import and export situation did not substantially improve. . In May, China's port container throughput is expected to reach 9.75 million TEUs, down 9.7% year-on-year, still in negative growth, but the decline has narrowed by 4 percentage points from the previous month.
The difference between the North and South ports is also supporting the judgment that imports and exports are “still badâ€.
From the perspective of classified data, the situation of the northern ports is obviously better than that of the south. "The throughput index of ports in the Bohai Rim region, which is dominated by domestic trade, is significantly better than the ports in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions where foreign trade is the mainstay." The above person said.
The pattern of “Northern South Cold†has been going on for several months.
According to the port throughput refinement data in April, the cargo throughput of Qingdao Port, Rizhao Port, Yingkou Port and Dalian Port in the north increased by 4.6%, 9.3%, 8.8%, and 6.8%, respectively; while Shanghai Port and Shenzhen Port in the South The throughput of Ningbo-Zhoushan Port and Guangzhou Port decreased by 14..9%, 19.6%, 7.6% and 9.2% respectively.
The May import and export data to be released by the General Administration of Customs is expected to be optimistic.
Zhong Shan, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China, has publicly stated that the negative growth in the first half of the year is a foregone conclusion. It is expected that the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year will remain optimistic and we must take active measures to deal with it.
In June, the government raised the export tax rebate rate for machinery, toys, steel and other commodities on a large scale. This is also the third increase in export tax rebates during the year. The import boom of bulk commodities is difficult to sustain. The improvement in the throughput of domestic and foreign trade cargoes has benefited from the trade boom of bulk commodities.
According to the classified data released by the Ministry of Communications, the amount of imported iron ore imported and discharged from Chinese ports is expected to reach 55.5 million tons in May, an increase of 24.6% year-on-year. The port coal handling capacity (including domestic trade loading and unloading volume and foreign trade import and discharge volume) It is expected to complete 49.2 million tons, an increase of 10.8%. The port's import and export of crude oil is expected to reach 13.8 million tons, an increase of 5.1%.
The import volume data of these three types of bulk commodities in May has not been announced.
However, due to the price difference between international coal prices and domestic coal prices close to 100 yuan in the past few months, coal imports in some ports in Guangdong and Tianjin ports in May even tripled compared with imports in April.
Crude oil imports are also expected to be high in May. Some people close to Sinopec and PetroChina revealed on June 9 that the operating rates of the two major refineries have reached 80%, and the volume of crude oil processing has increased significantly. In May, the crude oil processing volume of the two companies was 15.34 million tons and 9.85 million tons respectively. “Minute crude oil imports are expected to exceed Aprilâ€.
In April, China's crude oil imports achieved a year-on-year growth of 13.6% to 16.17 million tons, which was the first year-on-year growth during the year. However, whether this boom in the import of bulk commodities with the "pre-stocking" nature is still unknown.
Large coal traders Asia-Pacific energy sources revealed on June 9 that the large amount of imported coal in China caused the price difference between imported coal and domestic coal to disappear gradually. In the past week, the price of Australian thermal coal has increased by 10%. The price has been nearly 100 yuan higher than the price of Shanxi coal to Hong Kong.
More than 80% of Asia Pacific Energy's business volume in the first half of the year came from the contribution of the imported coal business, but this situation began to reverse this month. "We have begun to significantly reduce the amount of imports and increase the proportion of domestic trade coal. It is expected that 80% of the business volume in the second half will come from domestic trade coal," said the source.
Guo Haitao, assistant director of the China Energy Strategy Research Center, also predicts that if the international crude oil price is lowered, the import volume is expected to follow the decline. "The current surge in crude oil imports is not entirely driven by demand, more from the company's 'oil waiting to rise' Expectations."
Xu Xiangchun, director of information on “My Steelâ€, said on June 9 that the pattern of iron ore import surge may moderate moderately in the second half of the year, but imports are expected to remain at a high level. It is estimated that iron ore imports will reach 500 million tons this year, an increase from the 440 million tons of imports last year.
The Ministry of Communications's Hydraulic Research Institute (which provides data support for the port cargo throughput of the Ministry of Communications), an analyst said on June 9 that the import of resource-based commodities including crude oil, iron ore, coal, and this The active domestic trade of commodities is the direct cause of the improvement of the above indicators.
However, "the situation of foreign trade exports has not yet been reversed," she said. Port container throughput, one of the key indicators reflecting exports, fell by 9.7% year-on-year in May. The bottom of the port throughput gradually rises, and the pattern of north heat and south cold remains.
According to data released by the Ministry of Communications, China's port cargo throughput is expected to reach 546 million tons in May, an increase of 5% year-on-year. Among them, foreign trade cargo throughput is expected to complete 182 million tons, an increase of 4.7% year-on-year; domestic trade cargo throughput is expected to complete 364 million tons, an increase of 5.1%. The two indicators increased by 3.3 and 4.6 percentage points respectively.
In fact, the foreign trade cargo throughput of China's ports in March and the domestic cargo throughput of April have seen a slight increase.
“In May, this increase was more obvious, and the recovery of the port economy continued,†said analysts from the Institute of Hydraulic Research of the Ministry of Communications. According to the comparable daily average, the daily average of January, March, and April The cargo throughput was 14.69 million tons, 16.14 million tons, and 17.28 million tons, and the signs of a gradual recovery at the bottom were very clear.
However, the rebound in port throughput does not mean that the foreign trade situation has improved.
“Container throughput is a more important indicator reflecting foreign trade import and export.†The above analysts pointed out that the unsatisfactory external demand caused the container throughput growth in May to still show a large decline year-on-year, and the import and export situation did not substantially improve. . In May, China's port container throughput is expected to reach 9.75 million TEUs, down 9.7% year-on-year, still in negative growth, but the decline has narrowed by 4 percentage points from the previous month.
The difference between the North and South ports is also supporting the judgment that imports and exports are “still badâ€.
From the perspective of classified data, the situation of the northern ports is obviously better than that of the south. "The throughput index of ports in the Bohai Rim region, which is dominated by domestic trade, is significantly better than the ports in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions where foreign trade is the mainstay." The above person said.
The pattern of “Northern South Cold†has been going on for several months.
According to the port throughput refinement data in April, the cargo throughput of Qingdao Port, Rizhao Port, Yingkou Port and Dalian Port in the north increased by 4.6%, 9.3%, 8.8%, and 6.8%, respectively; while Shanghai Port and Shenzhen Port in the South The throughput of Ningbo-Zhoushan Port and Guangzhou Port decreased by 14..9%, 19.6%, 7.6% and 9.2% respectively.
The May import and export data to be released by the General Administration of Customs is expected to be optimistic.
Zhong Shan, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China, has publicly stated that the negative growth in the first half of the year is a foregone conclusion. It is expected that the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year will remain optimistic and we must take active measures to deal with it.
In June, the government raised the export tax rebate rate for machinery, toys, steel and other commodities on a large scale. This is also the third increase in export tax rebates during the year. The import boom of bulk commodities is difficult to sustain. The improvement in the throughput of domestic and foreign trade cargoes has benefited from the trade boom of bulk commodities.
According to the classified data released by the Ministry of Communications, the amount of imported iron ore imported and discharged from Chinese ports is expected to reach 55.5 million tons in May, an increase of 24.6% year-on-year. The port coal handling capacity (including domestic trade loading and unloading volume and foreign trade import and discharge volume) It is expected to complete 49.2 million tons, an increase of 10.8%. The port's import and export of crude oil is expected to reach 13.8 million tons, an increase of 5.1%.
The import volume data of these three types of bulk commodities in May has not been announced.
However, due to the price difference between international coal prices and domestic coal prices close to 100 yuan in the past few months, coal imports in some ports in Guangdong and Tianjin ports in May even tripled compared with imports in April.
Crude oil imports are also expected to be high in May. Some people close to Sinopec and PetroChina revealed on June 9 that the operating rates of the two major refineries have reached 80%, and the volume of crude oil processing has increased significantly. In May, the crude oil processing volume of the two companies was 15.34 million tons and 9.85 million tons respectively. “Minute crude oil imports are expected to exceed Aprilâ€.
In April, China's crude oil imports achieved a year-on-year growth of 13.6% to 16.17 million tons, which was the first year-on-year growth during the year. However, whether this boom in the import of bulk commodities with the "pre-stocking" nature is still unknown.
Large coal traders Asia-Pacific energy sources revealed on June 9 that the large amount of imported coal in China caused the price difference between imported coal and domestic coal to disappear gradually. In the past week, the price of Australian thermal coal has increased by 10%. The price has been nearly 100 yuan higher than the price of Shanxi coal to Hong Kong.
More than 80% of Asia Pacific Energy's business volume in the first half of the year came from the contribution of the imported coal business, but this situation began to reverse this month. "We have begun to significantly reduce the amount of imports and increase the proportion of domestic trade coal. It is expected that 80% of the business volume in the second half will come from domestic trade coal," said the source.
Guo Haitao, assistant director of the China Energy Strategy Research Center, also predicts that if the international crude oil price is lowered, the import volume is expected to follow the decline. "The current surge in crude oil imports is not entirely driven by demand, more from the company's 'oil waiting to rise' Expectations."
Xu Xiangchun, director of information on “My Steelâ€, said on June 9 that the pattern of iron ore import surge may moderate moderately in the second half of the year, but imports are expected to remain at a high level. It is estimated that iron ore imports will reach 500 million tons this year, an increase from the 440 million tons of imports last year.
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