"Twelve Five Years" China's average annual growth rate of crude steel production will be reduced by about half

Li Shijun, chief analyst of the China Iron and Steel Association, said in Shanghai on the 16th that the development of China's steel industry during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period will shift from “high-speed extensive” type to “fine deceleration” type. Even if calculated based on the more optimistic peak of 850 million tons of production, the average annual growth rate is only 6%, which is about half of that in the “Eleventh Five-Year” period.

Li Shijun made the above statement at the "Seventh Steel Industry Development Strategy Conference" sponsored by the "Steel House" information agency. He pointed out that during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, China's average annual growth rate of crude steel production fell from 22.6% in the "10th Five-Year Plan" period to about 12%. By the end of 2010, China’s crude steel production reached 627 million tons, a record high, and sales profit margin fell from more than 8% at the end of the “fifteen” period to less than 3%, which was at the bottom of the industrial sector.

This "one high and one low" situation forced the steel industry to make major adjustments. The main direction of adjustment is "a little less production and better efficiency." There are two major forces of adjustment: First, the proportion of investment, exports, and consumption in the "troika" of GDP. The direction of China’s economic restructuring is to reduce its reliance on investment and exports, and more toward consumption-driven, which will play a restrictive role in steel consumption. “According to a study conducted by Renmin University of China, steel is the second largest (after the construction industry) in the industries driven by investment. In the industries driven by exports, steel ranks seventh. In the industries driven by consumption, the former Ten people do not have steel."

The second is the reduction trend of unit steel. Due to energy saving and environmental protection requirements, the efficient use of steel will become an important choice. A typical example in this regard is automotive steel. Li Shijun pointed out that the weight of China's own-brand cars is 8%-10% higher than that of joint venture brands. The reason for this phenomenon is that the proportion of high-strength steel in China's auto industry is relatively low, only about 21%, while developed countries generally reach 40%-50%.

After bidding farewell to the simple expansion of production, how can steel companies adapt to the market environment in the new situation? “Differentiated competition will be an important strategy.” Li Shijun pointed out: First, the differentiation of technologies and the high value-added products that others cannot easily replicate. The main focus of Baosteel's net profit of RMB 12.9 billion in 2010 is that it is unique in China. Car board. The second is regional differentiation. For the first time in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the concept of “main functional area” was proposed, and different regions were divided into optimized development zones, key development zones, restricted development zones and prohibited development zones. “The tasks undertaken by different regions are different, and the steel strength is not the same. Enterprises need to be treated differently.”