Ceramics Industry Forecast in 2012

In 2011, China's home building ceramics industry in China was very sluggish. Judging from Zibo, the main producer of ceramics in China, many ceramic brands are bleak business, and some are in a stage of loss, because they fear the follow-up fatigue message will be exposed to greater losses. Some of the major ceramics factories in Guangdong also closed their production lines and increased the unit price to maintain profits. During this period, only those companies that do branding can do better, such as dot-diamond tiles that have achieved more than 50% growth over the same period of last year. This entirely depends on the owner's thinking and determination to do the brand. But nowadays, we believe that the spring of 2012 home building materials industry is approaching. The reasons are as follows:

First, the country's steadfast downward adjustment of housing prices policy, although it will cause the real estate industry to suffer setbacks, but does not affect the home decoration decoration temperature: down the price is a firm national policy According to Phoenix Satellite TV report, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao October 6 in Russia St. Petersburg stated that China's downward adjustment of housing prices is a firm policy of the country. Adjusted housing prices will enable the people to accept and also make the real estate industry develop in a healthy and orderly manner.

Wen Wen stressed that this year's national fiscal revenue is about ten trillion yuan, which will be used by the people.

Wen Yu said: "Real estate regulation and control, we have been talking about it for two years, and some major measures have already been introduced. In particular, we must ensure the construction of ten million sets of affordable housing projects this year, which is bound to ease the price The pressure to ease the needs of residents, the overall situation of housing prices is still in a stalemate stage, but this month has also begun to loosen.** said: “here I would like to emphasize that for a series of real estate control measures, must not have the slightest To shake, our goal is to return home prices to reasonable prices. ”

Premier Wen believes that as a big developing country, we will manage our own affairs well, which is our greatest contribution to the world. Of course, we must follow the international rules and regulate the speed at which we should develop.

Second, housing prices have dropped, which is conducive to the new family. The reality of the establishment of China is that men and women are out of proportion after the 1980s. According to the data from the sixth census, the population of the 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government, and active military personnel in mainland China, the male population It was 686,852,572, accounting for 51.27%; the female population was 652,872,280, accounting for 48.73%. The sex ratio of the total population (the ratio of women to 100 and the ratio of men to women) decreased from 106.74 in the fifth national census in 2000 to 105.20. If you want to leave only men, how can you leave women?

In the “Poor Inflation Rich Wealth Deflation”, a detailed comparative analysis of the demographic structure of the three countries in Japan, the United States, Japan, and the United States has encountered the bursting of the housing bubble, precisely at the time of a sharp decline in the age of 25 to 34 years of age. . In China, the same time-consuming node with a sharp drop of 40% in the age of marriageable people occurred in 2012. This time is exactly the culmination of house prices, and the buying community is retreating like a tsunami. The supply bubble is not broken, and it is the same as Japan and the United States.

Third, the property was once rigidly demanded but now decoration will become just need now. The price drop is only a sign, and the mother’s mother’s shadow is gone. Why? Very boring. Because the assets of people who bought homes in 2009 had already shrunk dramatically, the mother-in-law had been stunned by Gu Yunchang and Ren Zhiqiang. They were madly forcing their son-in-law to buy a house. Now, the two guys are no longer booing, but they have already put a group of people in. This group of people is likely to be the first group of negative assets in China for 30 years. When the house sister talked about the house, she said to her mother-in-law: "You see, I was paralyzed by you and turned into a disabled person." The original 2.5 million houses can now be purchased for only 1.9 million.

The house was originally not used for appreciation, but was used to live and work in peace. In the past two years, it was totally reversed, putting the house as a speculative commodity, plus the developers basically controlled the real estate and finance sections of major media. Every day, it was said that housing prices should rise for 100 years, and now it is not necessary to buy more in the future. If you buy a house, you are patriotic. If you don’t buy a house, you’re a rogue. Then, the remaining women are born. If you don’t buy a house, you will not get married. The vast majority of houses you buy are nested in.

Let's look at the price index in advance of the population structure, there are two, one is the land price, the other is the currency circulation. In the same land, this year's land price has dropped by 40% compared to last year. Then, the price of land is transmitted to house prices in only one to two years. In terms of land prices, some cities will have a 40% price drop in the coming years. Looking at the currency again, the growth rate of currency issuance is 29.7% in 2009. Now, only 13%, the growth rate of currency issuance has dropped by 60% compared to 2009, which means that money will be more valuable. If the renminbi stops appreciating, the value of the currency will begin to stabilize. The time when the cash is king will be on the way. If the family buying a house is locked in, the monthly income will have to be used to generate the main income, and many opportunities will be lost.

Fourth, real estate will move up Zhou Libo jokingly said that what is real estate, that is, when you need it does not move, make you miserable. The developed countries all have a common standard. That is, the price-to-income ratio is generally 3 to 6 times. China's minimum is 15 times, and the highest is even 20 times. Isn't this a ridiculous thing? High house prices are drinking blood and devour the people’s wealth. Now it's all right, my mother-in-law is not screaming, and her left-over daughter will be a laughing stock.