The renminbi has continued to appreciate since the exchange reform, but the recent Sino-US trade war broke out, triggering a safe-haven buying of the US dollar, causing the renminbi exchange rate to fluctuate and closing against the US dollar yesterday. According to some analysts, it is expected that the appreciation rate of the RMB will slow down in the coming year and will increase by about 4% against the US dollar.
The central parity of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar at the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center was 6.3737 yuan per US dollar. After that, the exchange rate fluctuated quite a bit, but in the end it lost to stronger dollar buying. The closing price fell to 6.382 yuan, and the domestic market was against the yuan for one year. The latest transaction for swaps is 349 points, which is equivalent to the market's belief that the yuan will reach 6.3471 yuan per dollar after one year, and the exchange rate of the offshore market in Hong Kong is 6.447 yuan.
Favoring inflation and adjusting economic structure
According to the latest survey by Reuters, the RMB against the US dollar is still on the upward trajectory in the coming year, but the speed will slow down. It is expected to rise by about 4% to 6.11 yuan by the end of September next year, and the Sino-US exchange rate war or Short-term fluctuations in the pace of appreciation. The forecast of 39 interviewed analysts shows that every dollar against the yuan will be reported at 6.35 yuan at the end of this month, and at the end of this year and at the end of March next year, it will be reported at 6.3 yuan and 6.24 yuan respectively.
Analysts surveyed generally expect that the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will continue to appreciate in the coming year, but expectations of unilateral appreciation of the RMB have weakened compared to the past. In order to curb inflation and economic restructuring, the exchange rate policy has become an important regulation and control tool for the central bank. However, after October, China's trade surplus may decline further, macroeconomic policies will face adjustment, and the development of Sino-US exchange rate disputes will affect the appreciation of the renminbi.
Guokai Securities Du Zhengzheng believes that the appreciation of the renminbi is conducive to suppressing inflation and promoting economic restructuring. It also means that the US economic growth may not be as good as expected this year and next. It is expected that the renminbi will rise 5.4% this year and will appreciate less than 5% next year. .
The central parity of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar at the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center was 6.3737 yuan per US dollar. After that, the exchange rate fluctuated quite a bit, but in the end it lost to stronger dollar buying. The closing price fell to 6.382 yuan, and the domestic market was against the yuan for one year. The latest transaction for swaps is 349 points, which is equivalent to the market's belief that the yuan will reach 6.3471 yuan per dollar after one year, and the exchange rate of the offshore market in Hong Kong is 6.447 yuan.
Favoring inflation and adjusting economic structure
According to the latest survey by Reuters, the RMB against the US dollar is still on the upward trajectory in the coming year, but the speed will slow down. It is expected to rise by about 4% to 6.11 yuan by the end of September next year, and the Sino-US exchange rate war or Short-term fluctuations in the pace of appreciation. The forecast of 39 interviewed analysts shows that every dollar against the yuan will be reported at 6.35 yuan at the end of this month, and at the end of this year and at the end of March next year, it will be reported at 6.3 yuan and 6.24 yuan respectively.
Analysts surveyed generally expect that the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will continue to appreciate in the coming year, but expectations of unilateral appreciation of the RMB have weakened compared to the past. In order to curb inflation and economic restructuring, the exchange rate policy has become an important regulation and control tool for the central bank. However, after October, China's trade surplus may decline further, macroeconomic policies will face adjustment, and the development of Sino-US exchange rate disputes will affect the appreciation of the renminbi.
Guokai Securities Du Zhengzheng believes that the appreciation of the renminbi is conducive to suppressing inflation and promoting economic restructuring. It also means that the US economic growth may not be as good as expected this year and next. It is expected that the renminbi will rise 5.4% this year and will appreciate less than 5% next year. .
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