“China has great potential for energy conservation and emission reduction through technological advancement.†The Energy Research Institute of Japan recently held the “First Oil Market Research Results Exchange Conference†jointly organized by China Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute and Japan Energy Economic Research Institute. Director Ito Hiroshi analyzed the energy situation in Asia and the world. He believes that the promotion of energy conservation through technological development will be an important way for the long-term stable development of the entire world. Japan has made useful attempts in this respect and has achieved good development. Other Asian countries, especially China and India, Through technological advances, it can also reach a higher level. Liu Zhenwu, deputy chief engineer of China National Petroleum Corporation, believes that China's energy-saving and emission-reduction market is very broad. Japan has accumulated rich experience in energy conservation and environmental protection in the process of rapid economic growth, which has important implications for China. According to Xu Yongfa, president of the China Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute, the two energy research institutions in China and Japan have long-term exchanges and have conducted mutual visits, exchanges and discussions. In 2005, the two sides formally signed a research cooperation agreement. The exchange meeting was the first time that the two sides held a conference on the theme of the world oil market. At this exchange meeting, Japanese experts looked forward to the development of the energy market in the Asia-Pacific region and the world, and introduced Japan's efforts in energy conservation and emission reduction. Population growth and car ownership increase for primary energy consumption The Japan Energy Research Institute's research shows that the entire Asian region, including China and India, will continue to develop rapidly, thus driving the rapid development of the global economy. The global population will also continue to grow, and India will be the country with the largest increase in population worldwide. The Japan Energy Research Institute predicts that by 2030, India's population will surpass China and become the world's most populous country. The continued growth of the population will also drive the rapid growth of global energy demand. For sensitive energy prices, Ito Hiji believes that crude oil prices will still be determined by supply and demand, and international oil prices will decline before 2010. However, the strong demand and the increased difficulty in the discovery of large oil fields will make the international oil price after 2010 show a continuous rise. Natural gas prices will be linked to crude oil prices, while coal prices remain relatively stable. In the next 25 years, the growth of world energy consumption will mainly come from Asia, accounting for 50% of the global increase. In the energy structure, the world's top is still oil, followed by coal and natural gas; in Asia, coal is the first, followed by oil and natural gas. The share of coal will decline after 2010, but it will remain the most important primary energy in Asia; the share of oil will gradually decline, and the share of natural gas will increase slowly; the main driving force for global nuclear energy utilization will come from Asia. The increase in car ownership is the main driver of rapid growth in oil demand. Ito Hiroki predicts that by 2030, China's car ownership will reach 230 million units, 7.3 times that of 2005, but compared with developed countries, the car penetration rate is still not high. India's car ownership will reach 86 million units, 5.6 times that of 2005, which is basically the same as the current car ownership in Japan. According to the Japan Energy Research Institute, by 2030, nearly 60% of China's oil consumption growth will be used in transportation, with only 11% in the industrial sector and 30% in civilian use; 66% of the increase in coal consumption will be used for power generation. 19% is used for heating; natural gas consumption growth is mainly from civilian use, accounting for 45%, power generation is 39%, and industrial gas is only 16%. The "leaders" system has promoted Japan's energy conservation and emission reduction on a new level of rapid economic growth, increased energy pressure, and increased environmental burden. This is not a problem for individual countries, but a problem that all countries in the world urgently need to face. According to Ito Hiji, Japan, as a resource-poor country and the world's second-largest oil importer, attaches great importance to environmental protection and energy conservation. The “New National Energy Strategy†report released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry in 2006 proposes that energy efficiency will increase by 30% by 2030. In the speech, Morita Yuji, research director of the Department of Metrology and Analysis of the Japan Energy Research Institute, pointed out that it is not enough to focus on energy conservation and emission reduction in the industrial sector. The energy demand in the civil and transportation sectors is growing rapidly, and energy conservation in these areas will reduce energy conservation for the entire society. The row made a major contribution. He specifically mentioned that Japan’s “leadership approach†has made outstanding achievements in this regard. It is understood that the "leaders" system is a kind of Japanese original whiplashing measures to promote energy conservation. The so-called Top Runner refers to the industry's lowest energy consumption in the production of automobiles, electrical appliances and other products. The leader is to establish the industry benchmark and force other companies to align with them, that is, to determine the current highest energy-saving standards for home appliances and automobiles, so that the fuel consumption standards and electrical products of automobiles are higher than the current commercialized electromechanical standards. The best product performance in the product. For manufacturers that fail to meet the standards, take measures such as warnings, announcements, orders, and fines (less than 1 million yen). According to the relevant information, the leader's standard was formulated by the Japan Energy Agency. Before the development, there is a very intense discussion with the industry community. For example, the car exhaust standard, it is necessary to investigate the fuel consumption of each car, the best as a standard. Since the implementation of the "Leader" system for many years, through the efforts of manufacturers, all kinds of electrical appliances have achieved energy efficiency improvement beyond the original expectations. For example, in the automotive industry, energy efficiency increased by 22% in 2004 compared to 1995, and by the original target, it was 23% in 2010. In 2003, the TV efficiency increased by 25.7% compared with 1997, the video recorder increased by 73.6% in 2003 compared with 1997; the air conditioner in 2004 increased by 67.8% compared with 1997; the refrigerator in 2004 increased by 55.2% compared with 1998; the electric refrigerator in 2004 compared with 1998 Increase by 29%. Energy conservation and emission reduction will be the best way to achieve sustainable development in China . At present, the efficiency of China's coal thermal power generation is 36%, and that of Japan is 40%. Morita Yuji believes that by technological advancement, by 2030, China's coal power efficiency can be increased to 43%. Automobile fuel consumption is currently 9.1 liters per 100 kilometers in China and 6.11 liters in Japan. By improving the engine combustion system, improving fuel quality and strengthening fuel standards, this number is expected to drop to 5.8 liters by 2030. The energy-consuming steel industry will also greatly improve energy efficiency through technological advancement. Japanese experts suggest that China can focus on high-efficiency boilers, CDQ, top pressure energy recovery turbine equipment (TRT), demand side management (DSM) for heating systems, and thermal insulation in industrial, civil, and commercial areas. Materials, high-efficiency pumps, etc. improve energy efficiency; in the transportation sector, hybrid vehicles and intelligent transportation systems can be used; in the field of power generation, coal gasification combined cycle power generation (IGCC), coal gasification fuel cell composite power generation system (IGFC) and more can be used. Advanced gas combined system (MACC); in renewable energy, it should develop automotive biomass energy, solar power, wind power and biomass power generation; nuclear energy should be developed, new nuclear power plants should be built, and operational efficiency and safety control levels should be improved. According to the prediction of the Japan Energy Research Institute, by promoting the development of energy-saving technologies, by 2030, China's primary energy consumption will be reduced by 17% compared with the usual forecast, and carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced by 24%. There is a lot of room for energy conservation and emission reduction
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